Current Volatility Report
Minnesota statute requires Minnesota Management and Budget to “develop and annually review a methodology for evaluating the adequacy of the budget reserve based on the volatility of Minnesota’s general fund revenue structure. Volatility is the amount that a data series varies from its trend growth path. In this presentation, State Economist Laura Kalambokidis, provides an overview of the methodology used to calculate the recommended size of the budget reserve as a percentage of general fund net non-dedicated revenues. This information was presented to the Minnesota Senate Finance Committee on January 24, 2019. Presentation Slides (pdf) | Report (pdf)
How Much is Enough? Prevailing Revenue Volatility & State Budget Reserve
Most state governments (including Minnesota) use rainy day funds to cushion against fiscal stress caused by changing economic conditions and tax policy preferences. This presentation summarizes MMB's empirical method for estimating an appropriate size rainy day fund for Minnesota based on prevailing cyclical volatility of the state's revenue system. It was made by MMB Economist Matt Schoeppner to the FTA Revenue Estimating Conference in Tampa, Florida on September 30, 2015.
Presentation Slides (pdf)
Minnesota's Revenue Volatility
Every state tax system has some inherent revenue volatility. Most states (including Minnesota) manage the associated risk with rainy day reserves. This presentation (1) presents data on revenue volatility, trend growth, and the share of total general fund revenues for each major source of Minnesota general fund revenue, (2) reviews the primary drivers of increased revenue volatility since the mid-1990s, and (3) discusses how analysis of Minnesota's revenue volatility informs MMB's budget reserve recommendations. It was made by State Economist Laura Kalambokidis to the the Minnesota House Taxes Committee on January 22, 2015.
Presentation Slides (pdf) Prepared Remarks (pdf)
Rate of Return Assumptions for Minnesota's Public Pension Plans
The expected rate of return assumption is typically used to compare the present-day value of pension assets to future pension obligations. This presentation (1) presents data related to U.S. economic growth and (2) summarizes consensus among economists who have written about public pension rate of return assumptions. It was made by State Economist Laura Kalambokidis to the the Minnesota Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement on August 29, 2013.
Presentation Slides (pdf)
Minnesota State Budget Trends Study Commission Report
The Minnesota State Budget Trends Study Commission was created by the governor and legislature to examine the changing demographics and the long-term stability of the state budget. The Commission reviewed financial recommendations from various studies completed over a 30-year period and heard presentations from numerous state officials with backgrounds in demography, education, health care, finance, and economics. The final report identifies the primary findings on demographic and fiscal trends, and presents the recommendations of the Commission. The Commission's report was released in January 2009.