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Minnesota's Forecast Process
Twice each year, near the end of November and February, Minnesota Management & Budget (MMB) produces a forecast of Minnesota's state General Fund revenues and expenditures for current and future bienniums. The Budget & Economic Forecast reflects current law, and is based on the most recent information about the national and state economic outlook as well as caseload, enrollment, and cost projections.
Economic Analysis (EA) at MMB is responsible for producing the revenue side of the Budget & Economic Forecast. Minnesota's revenue forecast begins with information provided by the state's national economic consultant, IHS Economics (formerly IHS Global Insight), on national economic trends in output, employment, inflation, income, production levels, etc. EA economists review the national economic outlook with Minnesota's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) just prior to the beginning of the estimation process in an attempt to evaluate any unforeseen risks.
Once the CEA confirms that IHS Economics baseline forecast represents an appropriate starting point for the state's revenue projections, the national economic outlook is combined with state-level indicators to forecast the Minnesota economy. This is completed using an econometric model of the Minnesota economy developed and maintained by EA. Results from the Minnesota Model produce short-term (30-months), quarterly forecasts of total employment, wages and salaries, and other personal income components in Minnesota that are then used as inputs into other models of Minnesota's tax system to compute projected tax revenues.
The expenditure side of the Budget & Economic Forecast is prepared by state agency and MMB's Budget Division. Expenditure projections assume that current law funding levels and policies continue unchanged, adjusted for caseload and enrollment changes authorized in law, as well as formula-driven growth. After determining base expenditures as determined by current law formulas, the expenditure forecast assumes inflationary growth for programs that do not already have allowances for cost growth built into current law formulas.
In between forecasts, EA also prepares a quarterly Revenue and Economic Update in January, April, July and October of each year. These updates report on how actual revenue collections for the current year compare to the previous forecast as well as provide notes on changes in the national and state economic outlook.
See the forecast links for an extended discussion of Minnesota's economy and projections of future budget obligations. For general data requests or questions, please Contact EA.
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Dr. Raymond Robertson, State Economist
Dr. Raymond Robertson is an economist whose career has focused on applying rigorous economic analysis to public policy. He earned a B.A. in Political Science and Economics from Trinity University and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Texas at Austin. After beginning his academic career at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, he joined Macalester College in Saint Paul, where he taught economics for fifteen years and directed the Latin American Studies Program before joining Texas A&M University as the Helen and Roy Ryu Professor of Economics and Government and Director of the Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy.
Throughout his career, Dr. Robertson has combined academic research with public service. His work has informed economic policy for governments and international organizations, including the U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Department of State, the World Bank, and the International Labour Organization. He previously chaired the U.S. Department of Labor's National Advisory Committee on Labor Provisions of U.S. Free Trade Agreements, served on the U.S. Department of State's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy, and served on the advisory board of the Center for Global Development. His research spans labor markets, regional economic development, trade, migration, and workforce issues, with an emphasis on using empirical evidence to inform policy decisions.
Dr. Robertson has authored or edited numerous books and more than one hundred scholarly publications and policy reports and has received research support from organizations including the World Bank, the U.S. Department of State, the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), and Google. He was named a Texas A&M Presidential Impact Fellow in 2018 in recognition of the policy impact of his research. His professional career reflects a longstanding commitment to communicating economic analysis clearly to policymakers and the public and to applying economics to address practical public policy challenges.
He began serving as Minnesota’s state economist in August 2026.
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Minnesota Council of Economic Advisers
Minnesota's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) acts as an objective adviser on economic and fiscal matters to both the executive and legislative branches of Minnesota state government.
The CEA's duties include reviewing the assumptions and methodology that Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) uses to produce economic and revenue forecasts. The CEA may also provide public policy counsel at the request of the Governor, the Legislature, or state government commissioners, and initiate or recommend special studies where economic research and analysis are relevant to evaluation of fiscal policy options.
The CEA meets twice before the preparation of both the November and February Budget & Economic Forecast to review the baseline and alternative scenarios of the U.S. macroeconomic forecast and as needed during the summer to review mid-year fiscal matters. Meetings of the CEA are convened by the State Economist. A summary statement from the CEA is included in each Budget & Economic Forecast report.
CEA members are appointed by the Commissioner of MMB. Current CEA members include:
- Paul Anton, Anton Economics
- Tony Barrett, College of St. Scholastica (Retired)
- James Campbell, Northern States Power Co. (Retired)
- Elizabeth Davis, University of Minnesota
- Laura Kalambokidis, University of Minnesota (and former Minnesota State Economist)
- Joe Mahon, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Toby Madden, Author and speaker, formerly with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
- Kristine West, St. Catherine University and the Director of the Minnesota Center for Diversity in Economics
