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Forecast Uncertainty

Summary of Revenue Forecast Uncertainty for the Current Biennium

In Minnesota’s February 2019 Budget and Economic Forecast, total revenues for FY 2018-19 are forecast to be $45.212 billion. This forecast was constructed five months before the current biennium closes. If this forecast turns out to have the same degree of accuracy as the average of our five-months-ahead forecasts, we can expect FY 2018-19 closing revenues to be between $44.902 and $45.522 billion (+/- $0.31 billion).

Total revenues for FY 2020-21 are forecast to be $47.941 billion. This forecast was constructed 29 months before the close of the biennium. If this forecast is consistent with average accuracy of our 29 months-ahead forecasts, we can expect FY 2020-21 closing revenues to be between $45.511 and $50.371 billion (+/- $2.43 billion). - summary from the March 2019 Forecast Uncertainty Report

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