Minnesota’s net general fund receipts for FY 2022 are now estimated to total $30.329 billion, $2.927 billion (10.7 percent) more than projected in the February 2022 Budget and Economic Forecast. It is important to note that most of the higher-than-expected revenue reflects the timing of payments from Pass-Through-Entities (PTE). We do not have enough information to estimate how much of the variance is due to the PTE timing shift. Over the next six months we expect these revenues will be largely offset by related tax credits and refunds. We believe that at the close of fiscal year 2022, state revenues associated with tax year 2021 are at least $1 billion over forecast.

Overall, we are seeing some evidence in Minnesota’s tax revenues that is consistent with a slowing economy. Also, since February our national forecasters have consistently lowered their expectations for U.S. economic growth in 2022-2025, and they say the risk of a recession beginning in the next 12 months is increasing.

• View the full memo, including tabular data
• Visit the Economic Forecast Monthly and Quarterly Updates landing page

Note: All results are preliminary and subject to revision. Monthly revenue variances should be interpreted with great caution. Wide swings in variances may be caused by variations in the rate at which receipts are received and processed and differences in the rate at which refunds are issued.