Minnesota’s net general fund receipts for November and December of 2021 are now estimated to total $4.954 billion, $833 million (20.2 percent) more than forecast in the November 2021 Budget and Economic Forecast. However, a substantial portion of December collections are Pass-Through Entity Tax (PTE) estimated payments that will be credited against business owners’ individual income tax liability for TY 2021, lowering income tax final payments and raising refunds in CY 2022. We estimate that about $471 million of the $833 million overall variance arises from this timing shift.

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Note: All results are preliminary and subject to revision. Monthly revenue variances should be interpreted with great caution. Wide swings in variances may be caused by variations in the rate at which receipts are received and processed and differences in the rate at which refunds are issued.