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The Northwest's decline was slower initially but steeper overall
1/29/2026 1:32:47 PM
Anthony Schaffhauser
In 2019, 62% of Northwest Minnesota high school graduates enrolled in college the following fall. By 2022, that figure dropped to 55%, where it has remained through 2024 (Figure 1). Statewide, the pattern was similar, but less severe. Fall enrollment rates dropped from 66% for the class of 2019 to 62% for the class of 2020, then fluctuated between 61% and 62% through 2024.
The Northwest's decline was slower initially but steeper overall – an 8-percentage-point drop from 2019 to 2024, compared to 5 points statewide. The decline was even sharper for men. Male enrollment rates in the Northwest fell 9 percentage points (from 55% in 2019 to 46% in 2024), compared to 6 points statewide (from 60% to 54%).
Figure 1: Percent of Northwest Minnesota High School Graduates Immediately Enrolling in College in the Fall, 2019-2024
Source: Minnesota Statewide Longitudinal Education Data System (SLEDS)
Declining college enrollment in the Northwest and across Minnesota reflects a national trend. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, undergraduate enrollment nationwide fell nearly 7% between fall 2019 and fall 2021.
The enrollment gap between men and women is also a national phenomenon. In 2022, 66% of female high school graduates enrolled in college the following fall, compared to 57% of men, a 9-percentage-point gap. Male enrollment rates have lagged women's nationally since 1996.
However, the gender gap in Northwest Minnesota is significantly larger. From 2019 to 2022, men trailed women by 14 to 16 percentage points in fall college enrollment. While men and women both experienced declining enrollment initially, their trajectories diverged after 2022.
Female enrollment stabilized at 63% from 2022 through 2024. Male enrollment, however, remained volatile – rising from 47% to 49% in 2023 before falling to 46% in 2024. This volatility pushed overall enrollment down to 54% and created a 17-percentage-point gender gap, the largest yet recorded in the region.
Men don't make up ground by enrolling in subsequent years. For the class of 2024, an additional 2% of both men and women enrolled within 12 months of graduation. For the class of 2023, 6% of both men and women enrolled within two years. For the class of 2020, 9% of men and 10% of women enrolled within five years. Data show that women consistently enroll in college at higher rates immediately after graduation and enroll at the same or higher rates in the years that follow.
High school graduates aren't just enrolling at lower rates, those who do enroll are increasingly choosing shorter programs (Table 1). From 2019 to 2025, the share of new students 19 and younger selecting bachelor's degree programs dropped from 55% to 51%. Two-year associate degree programs remained stable at around 32-33%, while certificate programs under two years grew from 12% to 16%.
| Table 1: Program Award Selected by New Students 19 and Younger | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Program Award | 2015 | 2019 | 2025 | |||
| Number | Percent | Number | Percent | Number | Percent | |
| Certificates below Bachelor's | 579 | 10% | 612 | 12% | 680 | 16% |
| Associate Degrees | 1,797 | 32% | 1,651 | 32% | 1,386 | 33% |
| Bachelor's Degrees | 3,021 | 54% | 2,844 | 55% | 2,125 | 51% |
| Unknown | 203 | 4% | 27 | 1% | 14 | 0% |
| Source: Minnesota Statewide Longitudinal Education Data System (SLEDS) | ||||||
Looking at the full decade, the trend is clear: associate programs have held steady, certificate programs have grown, and bachelor's degree programs have declined over the past six years.
The shift toward shorter credentials reflects students' focus on immediate workforce entry and concerns about college costs and debt. For workforce development professionals, this trend presents both challenge and opportunity. While traditional bachelor's degree pathways may be losing appeal, demand for targeted, affordable career training is growing.
The critical question is whether the region's educational and workforce systems can adapt quickly enough to meet students where they are, and ensure these shorter pathways lead to family-sustaining careers and long-term economic mobility.
For more information about educational trends in Northwest Minnesota, contact Anthony Schaffhauser at Anthony.Schaffhauser@state.mn.us.
