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Regional Analysis

by Nick Dobbins
May 2020

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted data

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

The Minneapolis-St. Paul- Bloomington MSA lost 233,332 jobs (11.8 percent) in April, slightly worse than the state’s 11.4 percent decline. Service providers lost 219,336 jobs (12.8 percent), and goods producers lost 13,996 (5.2 percent). As was the case across the state, losses were widespread among the industries, with every published supersector posting over-the-month losses. Declines were more concentrated, however, in Leisure and Hospitality (down 95,238 or 53.6 percent), the hardest-hit supersector. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation was down 21,323 (62.5 percent), and Accommodation and Food Services was down 73,915 (51.5 percent). Over the year the metro area lost 271,198 jobs (13.4 percent). Leisure and Hospitality lost 104,821 jobs (56 percent), and Other Services lost 19,667 (25 percent). Combined, the two supersectors accounted for nearly half of the lost jobs in the metro, a pattern that we will see repeated across geographic regions in the state as restaurants, recreation activities, and nonessential services such as hairdressers were especially hard hit by pandemic containment measures. While some supersectors were hit harder than others, every published supersector in the metro area lost jobs on the year. Financial Activities, which was off by 2.4 percent (3,770 jobs) had the least dramatic declines, likely in part because of the telework-friendly nature of much of the supersector.

Duluth-Superior MSA

The Duluth-Superior MSA lost 17,139 jobs (12.8 percent) over the month in April. It was the largest proportional job loss of any MSA in the state. Leisure and Hospitality was off by 7,048 (51.6 percent), Other Services was down 1,563 (24.2 percent), and Manufacturing was off 1,155 (13.9 percent). Government employers lost 1,584 jobs (6.1 percent) on the month, with those losses split between State (down 732 or 9.4 percent) and Local (down 877 or 5.3 percent). The Duluth-Superior MSA also had the worst over-the-year job losses in the state, off by 15.6 percent or 21,513 jobs. Every supersector lost jobs, with the least affected still dropping by 7.8 percent - Financial Activities lost 434 jobs. Leisure and Hospitality lost 53.4 percent (7,589 jobs), and Other Services lost 22.9 percent (1,450 jobs). Mining, Logging, and Construction, which was only down 5.5 percent on the month, was off by 21.5 percent (2,027 jobs) on the year, reflecting the fact that the losses came at a time when the supersector is usually adding employment for the summer construction season.

Rochester MSA

The Rochester MSA lost 13,687 jobs (11.3 percent) on the month. The largest real and proportional decline came in Leisure and Hospitality, which was off by 5,778 or 53 percent. The next largest real job loss came in Educational and Health Services, which lost 4,248 jobs (8.4 percent). Other Services employment was off by 22.4 percent (862 jobs). Financial Activities was the only published supersector not to lose jobs in April, as it held steady at 2,754. Over the year the Rochester area lost 14,989 jobs (12.2 percent), slightly better than the state’s 13.1 percent decline. Every supersector lost jobs, although declines were less severe in Government (down 261 or 2 percent), Financial Activities (down 39 or 1.4 percent), and Mining, Logging, and Construction (down 134 or 2.8 percent).

St. Cloud MSA

The Saint Cloud MSA lost 11,030 jobs (10.1 percent) in April, a slightly better showing than the state’s 11.4 percent decline. Every published supersector lost jobs, although Mining, Logging, and Construction was off by only 1.2 percent (76 jobs). Leisure and Hospitality had the worst month, down by 54.2 percent or 4,045 jobs. Over the year the MSA lost 12,779 jobs, with declines driven by Leisure and Hospitality (down 4,709 or 57.9 percent) and Other Services (down 1,140 or 28 percent) but present in every published supersector and component sector. Financial Activities fared best over the year, losing 109 jobs or 2.1 percent.

Mankato-North Mankato MSA

Over the month the Mankato-North Mankato MSA lost 6,579 jobs (11.2 percent). The private sector lost 6,080 jobs (12.4 percent), and public sector employers lost 499 jobs (5 percent). Goods producers fared slightly better than service providers, down 8.1 percent versus their counterpart’s 11.8 percent decline. On the year the area lost 6,551 jobs (11.1 percent). Service providers lost 5,539 jobs (11.4 percent), and goods producers lost 1,012 (9.6 percent).

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

The Fargo-Moorhead MSA lost 12,819 jobs (8.9 percent) in April. The MSA had the best over-the-month and over-the-year performances of any in the state, likely from the relative lack of epidemic control measures in North Dakota, where the larger part of the MSA is located. Private sector employers lost 11,479 jobs (9.2 percent) while the public sector lost 1,340 jobs (6.6 percent). Over the year the Fargo-Moorhead area lost 12,765 jobs (8.8 percent). Goods producers lost 1,184 jobs (6.5 percent), and service providers lost 11,581 (9.2 percent). Leisure and Hospitality employment was down by 55 percent or 7,885 jobs.

Grand Forks-East Grand Forks MSA

The Grand Forks-East Grand Forks MSA lost 5,303 jobs (9.8 percent) in April. Leisure and Hospitality was down 2,335 (42.2 percent), and Other Services was down 371 (19.1 percent). Manufacturing employment was off by 441 (9.4 percent). Over the year the MSA lost 5,871 jobs (10.7 percent), with declines in every published supersector and component sector. It was the second best over-the-year performance of any MSA, likely partially owing to being located primarily in North Dakota, which had less stringent pandemic containment guidelines.

Graph: Total Nonfarm Jobs

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