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Job Vacancy Survey Future Hiring

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Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following second quarter 2019. Of employers surveyed:

  • 27 percent expect to increase employment levels, a slight increase from one year ago.
  • The majority, 62 percent, expect their employment levels to remain the same.
  • The remaining 11 percent plan to decrease from their current employment levels.

Table 1e: Future Hiring by Region, Second Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

26.7%

62.4%

10.9%

57.9%

Greater Minnesota

24.3%

70.0%

5.7%

59.3%

Twin Cities

28.7%

55.8%

15.5%

56.6%

Region 1 - Northwest

15.6%

83.1%

1.3%

57.1%

Region 2 - Headwaters

25.1%

68.7%

6.2%

59.4%

Region 3 - Northeast

27.9%

70.0%

2.1%

62.9%

Region 4 - West Central

17.4%

66.5%

16.1%

50.7%

Region 5 - North Central

27.2%

67.6%

5.2%

61.0%

Region 6E - Southwest Central

17.0%

64.6%

18.4%

49.3%

Region 6W - Upper Southwest

13.3%

78.6%

8.1%

52.6%

Region 7E - East Central

20.8%

76.7%

2.6%

59.1%

Region 7W - Central

23.4%

74.9%

1.7%

60.8%

Region 8 - Southwest

17.5%

76.6%

6.0%

55.7%

Region 9 - South Central

35.2%

58.8%

6.0%

64.6%

Region 10 - Southeast

28.9%

67.7%

3.4%

62.8%

Region 11 - Twin Cities

28.7%

55.8%

15.5%

56.6%

Table 1e shows employer hiring plans by region [1 ]. These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1e. A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers in the region plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers in the region plan to decrease employment.

At 57.9, the index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months. Moreover, all but one region have an index score above 50 meaning that employers anticipate employment increases across most of the state. At 49.3 percent Southwest Central employers anticipate a slight decline in employment in the region. The Twin Cities index is 56.6 percent and the Greater Minnesota index is 59.3 percent.

Figure 1e: Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region

Figure 1e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Regions

 

Future Hiring by Industry and Region

Table 2e below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2e is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. Statewide, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about increasing employment during the next six months: Accommodation, Manufacturing, Arts & Entertainment, Retail Trade and Transportation & Warehousing.

Four industries expect an overall decrease in employment over the next six months: Real Estate, Utilities, Finance & Insurance and Educational Services. All other industries have a diffusion index above the 50.0 percent meaning they anticipate an increase in their employment levels in the next six months.

Table 2e: Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota, Second Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Agriculture

26.1%

66.5%

7.3%

59.4%

Mining

30.4%

57.9%

11.7%

59.3%

Utilities

13.6%

70.5%

16.0%

48.8%

Construction

30.6%

59.9%

9.5%

60.5%

Manufacturing

40.0%

50.8%

9.2%

65.4%

Wholesale Trade

10.3%

87.1%

2.6%

53.8%

Retail Trade

30.4%

61.1%

8.6%

60.9%

Transportation and Warehousing

32.0%

57.4%

10.7%

60.6%

Information

16.7%

67.4%

15.9%

50.4%

Finance and Insurance

12.5%

71.8%

15.8%

48.4%

Real Estate

14.4%

69.5%

16.1%

49.1%

Prof., Sci., and Technical Svcs.

22.3%

60.6%

17.2%

52.5%

Management

27.2%

56.3%

16.5%

55.3%

Administration and Support

25.5%

54.5%

20.0%

52.7%

Educational Services

13.6%

59.8%

26.6%

43.5%

Healthcare

30.1%

60.7%

9.2%

60.4%

Arts and Entertainment

33.0%

57.2%

9.8%

61.6%

Accommodation

43.3%

49.3%

7.5%

67.9%

Other Services

20.4%

71.5%

8.2%

56.1%

Public Administration

17.2%

72.6%

10.2%

53.5%


Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota

Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota

 

For future hiring statistics by industry in Greater Minnesota or the Twin Cities, please download the following tables:

For Greater Minnesota, please see Table 3e. ( Ms Excel file )
For the Twin Cities, please see Table 4e. ( Ms Excel file )

Figure 3e graphs the diffusion index by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Figure 3e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater MN and the Twin Cities

Figure 3e: Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities

 

Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region

The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Table 5e: Future Hiring by Firm Size, Second Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

Very Small

18.5%

67.1%

14.4%

52.0%

Small

40.8%

56.1%

3.1%

68.8%

Medium

44.4%

48.0%

7.6%

68.4%

Large

56.9%

29.5%

13.6%

71.7%

Greater Minnesota

Very Small

16.7%

77.6%

5.6%

55.5%

Small

39.2%

57.3%

3.5%

67.9%

Medium

43.6%

43.1%

13.3%

65.1%

Large

45.8%

29.1%

25.1%

60.4%

Twin Cities

Very Small

20.0%

57.2%

22.7%

48.7%

Small

42.0%

55.2%

2.8%

69.6%

Medium

45.0%

51.1%

3.9%

70.5%

Large

63.2%

29.8%

6.9%

78.1%

Figure 4e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by firm size and region. During the six-month period following second quarter 2019 large employers across Minnesota are most likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce while very small employers are least likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce.

Figure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

Figure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

 

[ 1 ] The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percent of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percent of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percent expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.

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