facebook app skip to content
Primary navigation

Job Vacancy Survey Future Hiring

View: Home | Data Tool | About | Findings | Future Hiring | Methodology | LMI Help

Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following fourth quarter 2019. Of employers surveyed:

  • 22.5 percent expect to increase employment levels, identical to one year ago.
  • The majority, 72.1 percent, expect their employment levels to remain the same.
  • The remaining 5.5 percent plan to decrease from their current employment levels.
Table 1e: Future Hiring by Region, Fourth Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

22.5%

72.1%

5.5%

58.5%

Greater Minnesota

22.2%

71.8%

6.0%

58.1%

Twin Cities

22.8%

72.3%

5.0%

58.9%

Region 1 - Northwest

13.4%

80.7%

5.9%

53.7%

Region 2 - Headwaters

21.9%

67.0%

11.0%

55.5%

Region 3 - Northeast

30.1%

67.4%

2.5%

63.8%

Region 4 - West Central

17.4%

77.3%

5.3%

56.1%

Region 5 - North Central

21.6%

70.4%

8.0%

56.8%

Region 6E - Southwest Central

11.4%

82.5%

6.1%

52.6%

Region 6W - Upper Southwest

19.1%

64.1%

16.7%

51.2%

Region 7E - East Central

20.9%

76.7%

2.4%

59.2%

Region 7W - Central

29.1%

65.6%

5.4%

61.9%

Region 8 - Southwest

18.0%

77.2%

4.8%

56.6%

Region 9 - South Central

21.6%

66.3%

12.2%

54.7%

Region 10 - Southeast

21.4%

73.9%

4.7%

58.4%

Region 11 - Twin Cities

22.8%

72.3%

5.0%

58.9%


Table 1e shows employer hiring plans by region.[1] These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1e. A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers in the region plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers in the region plan to decrease employment.

At 58.5 percent, the index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months. Moreover, all regions have an index score above 50 meaning that employers anticipate employment increases throughout the state. The Twin Cities index is 58.9 percent and the Greater Minnesota index is 58.1 percent.

Figure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region

FIgure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region 


Future Hiring by Industry and Region

Table 2e below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2e is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. Statewide, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about increasing employment during the next six months: Administrative and Support, Manufacturing, Accommodation, and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

Only Agriculture and Real Estate expect a decrease in employment over the next six months with a diffusion index below 50 percent. All other industries have a diffusion index above the 50 percent, meaning they anticipate an increase in their employment levels in the next six months.

Table 2e: Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota, Fourth Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Agriculture

9.9%

75.7%

14.4%

47.8%

Mining

25.7%

52.0%

22.4%

51.6%

Utilities

23.4%

73.9%

2.7%

60.4%

Construction

24.4%

67.9%

7.7%

58.4%

Manufacturing

21.0%

75.5%

3.5%

58.8%

Wholesale Trade

17.9%

74.5%

7.6%

55.2%

Retail Trade

25.0%

72.0%

3.0%

61.0%

Transportation and Warehousing

24.6%

67.9%

7.5%

58.6%

Information

11.9%

77.0%

11.1%

50.4%

Finance and Insurance

15.3%

79.0%

5.7%

54.8%

Real Estate

7.3%

82.7%

10.0%

48.7%

Prof., Sci., and Technical Svcs.

16.9%

77.8%

5.3%

55.8%

Management

14.8%

84.4%

0.8%

57.0%

Administration and Support

23.5%

68.6%

7.9%

57.8%

Educational Services

16.8%

79.8%

3.4%

56.7%

Healthcare

35.2%

62.4%

2.4%

66.4%

Arts and Entertainment

11.2%

81.5%

7.3%

52.0%

Accommodation

34.0%

60.1%

5.9%

64.0%

Other Services

17.3%

78.0%

4.7%

56.3%

Public Administration

21.2%

75.8%

3.0%

59.1%


Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota


Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota 


For future hiring statistics by industry in Greater Minnesota or the Twin Cities, please download the following tables:

For Greater Minnesota, please see Table 3e. (Ms Excel file)
For the Twin Cities, please see Table 4e. (Ms Excel file)

Figure 3e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Figure 3e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater MN and the Twin Cities

Figure 3e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries  



Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region

The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Table 5e: Future Hiring by Firm Size, Fourth Quarter 2019

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

Very Small

13.6%

79.9%

6.5%

53.6%

Small

37.4%

59.6%

3.0%

67.2%

Medium

42.9%

51.9%

5.2%

68.9%

Large

48.4%

40.7%

10.9%

68.7%

Greater Minnesota

Very Small

16.3%

77.3%

6.4%

54.9%

Small

33.4%

63.0%

3.6%

64.9%

Medium

41.5%

49.0%

9.6%

66.0%

Large

45.5%

33.0%

21.5%

62.0%

Twin Cities

Very Small

10.7%

82.8%

6.5%

52.1%

Small

40.4%

57.0%

2.5%

69.0%

Medium

43.9%

53.7%

2.4%

70.8%

Large

50.5%

46.1%

3.4%

73.5%

Figure 4e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by firm size and region. During the six month period following fourth quarter 2019, medium and large employers are most likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce while very small employers are least likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce.

Figure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

FIgure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size 


[ 1] The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percent of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percent of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percent expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.

back to top