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Job Vacancy Survey Future Hiring

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Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following the fourth quarter of 2020. Of employers surveyed:

  • 22.9% expect to increase employment levels, down slightly compared to one year ago (22.5%).
  • The majority, 73.2%, expect their employment levels to remain the same.
  • The remaining 4.6% plan to decrease from their current employment levels, which is also down compared to last year (5.5%).
Table 1: Future Hiring by Region, Fourth Quarter 2020

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

22.2%

73.2%

4.6%

58.8%

Greater Minnesota

19.6%

76.5%

3.9%

57.8%

Twin Cities

24.5%

70.4%

5.2%

59.7%

Central Minnesota

24.6%

69.6%

5.8%

59.4%

Northeast Minnesota

23.2%

75.2%

1.5%

60.8%

Northwest Minnesota

17.1%

76.9%

6.0%

55.6%

Southeast Minnesota

10.8%

87.3%

1.9%

54.4%

Southwest Minnesota

20.9%

76.9%

2.2%

59.4%

Twin Cities Metro Area

24.5%

70.4%

5.2%

59.7%


Table 1 shows employer hiring plans by region.[1] These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1. A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers in the region plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers in the region plan to decrease employment.

At 58.8%, the index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months. Moreover, all regions have an index score above 50 meaning that employers anticipate employment increases throughout the state. The Twin Cities index is 59.7% and the Greater Minnesota index is 57.8%.

Figure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region   

Future Hiring by Industry and Region

Table 2 below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2 is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. Statewide, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about increasing employment during the next six months: Accommodation & Food Services, Health Care & Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Finance & Insurance and Utilities.

Only Mining and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation expect a decrease in employment over the next six months with a diffusion index below 50 percent. All other industries have a diffusion index above the 50 percent, meaning they anticipate an increase in their employment levels in the next six months.

Table 2. Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota, Fourth Quarter 2020

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Agriculture

14.3%

85.7%

0.0%

57.2%

Mining

11.8%

61.4%

26.9%

42.5%

Utilities

34.7%

51.1%

14.2%

60.3%

Construction

20.0%

74.0%

6.0%

57.0%

Manufacturing

27.4%

62.8%

9.8%

58.8%

Wholesale Trade

19.6%

78.0%

2.3%

58.6%

Retail Trade

28.2%

66.5%

5.3%

61.5%

Transportation & Warehousing

16.7%

83.3%

0.0%

58.3%

Information

12.7%

76.5%

10.9%

50.9%

Finance & Insurance

21.7%

78.3%

0.0%

60.9%

Real Estate

21.0%

69.4%

9.6%

55.7%

Professional & Technical Svcs.

17.9%

82.1%

0.0%

58.9%

Management

19.8%

80.3%

0.0%

59.9%

Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt.

18.2%

67.8%

14.1%

52.1%

Educational Services

17.4%

77.0%

5.6%

55.9%

Health Care & Social Assistance

26.9%

71.7%

1.4%

62.8%

Arts & Entertainment

14.3%

61.9%

23.9%

45.2%

Accommodation

39.2%

55.0%

5.8%

66.7%

Other Services

18.1%

76.7%

5.2%

56.5%

Public Administration

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

50.0%



Figure 2. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota 

Figure 3 graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities. Across most industries, employers in the Twin Cities are more optimistic about hiring than firms in Greater Minnesota.

Figure 3. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities

Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region

The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Table 3. Future Hiring by Firm Size, Fourth Quarter 2020

Increase
Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

Very Small

13.6%

81.1%

5.3%

54.2%

Small

38.2%

58.8%

3.1%

67.5%

Medium

46.1%

49.5%

4.4%

70.8%

Large

54.2%

45.8%

0.0%

77.1%

Greater Minnesota

Very Small

11.8%

83.7%

4.6%

53.6%

Small

33.3%

64.2%

2.5%

65.4%

Medium

46.7%

49.8%

3.5%

71.6%

Large

59.4%

40.6%

0.0%

79.7%

Twin Cities

Very Small

15.2%

79.0%

5.8%

54.7%

Small

42.1%

54.3%

3.6%

69.3%

Medium

45.6%

49.3%

5.1%

70.3%

Large

51.3%

48.7%

0.0%

75.7%


Figure 4 graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by firm size and region. During the six month period following fourth quarter 2020, medium and large employers are most likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce while very small employers are least likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce.

Figure 4. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size  

[1] The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percent of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percent of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percent expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.

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