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Job Vacancy Survey Future Hiring

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Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following fourth quarter 2018. Of employers surveyed:

  • 22.5 percent expect to increase employment levels, a slight increase from one year ago.
  • The majority, 73.0 percent, expect their employment levels to remain the same.
  • The remaining 4.5 percent plan to decrease from their current employment levels.

Table 1e: Future Hiring by Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

22.5%

73.0%

4.5%

59.0%

Greater Minnesota

23.2%

70.9%

5.9%

58.6%

Twin Cities

22.0%

74.8%

3.2%

59.4%

Region 1 - Northwest

14.1%

79.7%

6.2%

53.9%

Region 2 - Headwaters

17.1%

75.6%

7.3%

54.9%

Region 3 - Northeast

19.7%

71.1%

9.2%

55.3%

Region 4 - West Central

14.2%

79.0%

6.8%

53.7%

Region 5 - North Central

24.4%

69.3%

6.3%

59.1%

Region 6E - Southwest Central

16.1%

78.7%

5.2%

55.4%

Region 6W - Upper Southwest

14.2%

84.9%

1.0%

56.6%

Region 7E - East Central

16.6%

81.8%

1.6%

57.5%

Region 7W - Central

27.5%

65.3%

7.2%

60.2%

Region 8 - Southwest

22.6%

71.1%

6.3%

58.1%

Region 9 - South Central

18.0%

77.4%

4.6%

56.7%

Region 10 - Southeast

37.0%

58.6%

4.3%

66.4%

Region 11 - Twin Cities

22.0%

74.8%

3.2%

59.4%


Table 1e shows employer hiring plans by region [1 ]. These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1e. A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers in the region plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers in the region plan to decrease employment.

At 59.0, the index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months. Moreover, all regions have an index score above 50 meaning that employers anticipate employment increases throughout the state. The Twin Cities index is 59.4 percent and the Greater Minnesota index is 58.6 percent.

Figure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region

Figure 1. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Region

Future Hiring by Industry and Region

Table 2e below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2e is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. Statewide, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about increasing employment during the next six months: Administrative and Support, Manufacturing, Accommodation, and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

Only Mining expects a decrease in employment over the next six months with a diffusion index of 46.7 percent or less. All other industries have a diffusion index above the 50.0 percent meaning they anticipate an increase in their employment levels in the next six months.

Table 2e: Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota, Fourth Quarter 2018

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Agriculture

20.3%

61.7%

18.0%

51.1%

Mining

18.9%

55.8%

25.4%

46.7%

Utilities

9.5%

85.2%

5.4%

52.1%

Construction

22.8%

64.0%

13.2%

54.8%

Manufacturing

31.7%

64.8%

3.6%

64.1%

Wholesale Trade

13.3%

83.4%

3.3%

55.0%

Retail Trade

24.5%

70.9%

4.7%

59.9%

Transportation and Warehousing

25.2%

73.5%

1.3%

61.9%

Information

15.6%

75.2%

9.2%

53.2%

Finance and Insurance

7.9%

92.1%

0.0%

53.9%

Real Estate

15.6%

78.0%

6.5%

54.5%

Prof., Sci., and Technical Svcs.

27.4%

71.9%

0.7%

63.4%

Management

24.8%

71.0%

4.3%

60.3%

Administration and Support

33.4%

62.4%

4.2%

64.6%

Educational Services

25.7%

72.5%

1.7%

62.0%

Healthcare

26.8%

71.8%

1.4%

62.7%

Arts and Entertainment

12.8%

76.1%

11.1%

50.8%

Accommodation

29.7%

63.6%

6.7%

61.5%

Other Services

15.7%

82.7%

1.6%

57.1%

Public Administration

13.4%

85.9%

0.7%

56.3%

 

Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota

Figure 2e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota

For future hiring statistics by industry in Greater Minnesota or the Twin Cities, please download the following tables:

For Greater Minnesota, please see Table 3e. ( Ms Excel file )
For the Twin Cities, please see Table 4e. ( Ms Excel file )

Figure 3e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Figure 3e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater MN and the Twin Cities

Figure 3. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Industries in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities

Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region

The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

Table 5e: Future Hiring by Firm Size, Fourth Quarter 2018

Increase Employment

Employment Constant

Decrease Employment

Diffusion Index

Minnesota

Very Small

15.1%

79.9%

5.0%

55.1%

Small

34.9%

61.6%

3.5%

65.7%

Medium

43.9%

53.1%

3.0%

70.5%

Large

45.7%

51.5%

2.8%

71.5%

Greater Minnesota

Very Small

16.9%

76.1%

7.0%

55.0%

Small

34.9%

61.1%

4.0%

65.4%

Medium

44.8%

53.3%

1.9%

71.5%

Large

39.2%

59.5%

1.2%

69.0%

Twin Cities

Very Small

13.6%

83.3%

3.2%

55.2%

Small

34.9%

62.0%

3.1%

65.9%

Medium

43.4%

53.0%

3.6%

69.9%

Large

49.6%

46.7%

3.7%

72.9%

 

Figure 4e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by firm size and region. During the six month period following fourth quarter 2018 large employers are most likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce while medium size employers are least likely to anticipate an increase in their workforce.

Figure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

Figure 4e. Diffusion Index of Future Hiring by Firm Size

[ 1 ] The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percent of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percent of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percent expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.

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