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Industrial Analysis

by Nick Dobbins
nicholas.dobbins@state.mn.us
December 2016

Monthly analysis is based on seasonally adjusted employment data.
Yearly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.*

Overview

Minnesota added 5,000 jobs (0.2 percent) in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, and October’s preliminary estimate of a loss of 12,500 jobs was revised up to a loss of 10,900 as the most recent estimates allayed some of last month’s problems. Goods producers added 3,200 jobs (0.7 percent), and service providers added 1,800 (0.1 percent). The private sector added 5,800 jobs (0.2 percent), countering the loss of 800 jobs (0.2 percent) in the public sector. Over the year Minnesota added 31,978 jobs (1.1 percent). This growth marks a stabilization of the October rate, although it still represents a notable drop from the 1.5 percent over-the-year growth we saw in July and August. Most of November’s growth came from service providers, which added 28,221 jobs (1.2 percent), while goods producers added 3,757 (0.8 percent). Private sector employers added 29,970 jobs (1.2 percent), and public sector employers added 2,008 (0.5 percent).

Mining and Logging

Employment in the Mining and Logging supersector was flat in November, holding at 5,600 jobs, while October’s estimate was revised upward from 5,500 to 5,600 jobs. Over the year, employment in the supersector was off by 937 jobs (13.9 percent). The industry group has been showing a large negative over-the-year growth since December of 2015, which suggests that the rate may level off with next month’s estimates.

Construction

Employment in the Construction supersector was up on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, adding 3,400 jobs (2.9 percent). This growth counters some of the losses the industry group suffered earlier in the year, as it lost 1,700 jobs in each of August and September. Annually Construction employers added 5,840 jobs (4.9 percent). Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction added 2,569 jobs (14.9 percent), making it the fastest growing subsector, while Specialty Trade Contractors added 2,518 (3.3 percent).

Manufacturing

Minnesota Manufacturers lost 200 jobs (0.1 percent) in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers lost 200 jobs (0.2 percent) while employment in Durable Goods Manufacturing was flat. Annually the Manufacturing supersector lost 1,156 jobs (0.4 percent). While Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing was actually up on the year, adding 901 jobs (0.8 percent) on the strength of an additional 1,777 jobs (3.8 percent) in Food Manufacturing, it was not enough to overcome the losses elsewhere. Durable Goods Manufacturing shed 2,057 jobs (1 percent) with Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (down 1,136 or 2.7 percent) and Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (down 426 or 3.8 percent) driving much of that contraction.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Employment in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was unmoved in November, sticking at 530,800 after October’s estimate was revised up to that level from the initial estimate of 529,700. Gains in Wholesale Trade (up 1,600 or 1.2 percent) and Retail Trade (up 1,100 or 0.4 percent) were balanced by a loss of 2,700 (2.6 percent) in Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities. Annually the supersector added 6,701 jobs (1.3 percent) with Retail Trade driving much of that growth (up 7,379 or 2.5 percent). Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities added 1,303 jobs (1.3 percent) while Wholesale Trade lost 1,981 jobs (1.5 percent) as Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers shed 1,129 jobs (1.7 percent).

Information

The Information supersector added 200 jobs (0.4 percent) in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Annually the supersector lost 617 jobs (1.2 percent). Publishing Industries (except Internet) lost 830 jobs (4.2 percent) while Telecommunications lost 250 jobs (2 percent).

Financial Activities

The Financial Services supersector added 1,300 jobs (0.7 percent) in November. Finance and Insurance added 900 jobs (0.6 percent) while Real Estate and Rental and Leasing added 400 (1 percent). Over the year the supersector added 3,974 jobs (2.2 percent). Finance and Insurance added 2,762 jobs (1.9 percent) with growth in Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities (up 902 or 4.7 percent) and Insurance Carriers and Related Activities (up 2,507 or 3.8 percent). Real Estate and Rental and Leasing kicked in an additional 1,185 new jobs, representing annual growth of 3 percent.

Professional and Business Services

Professional and Business Services shed 3,000 jobs (0.8 percent) in November. Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services spurred the decline, losing 3,700 jobs (2.7 percent). It was the second straight month of losses of more than 1 percent for the sector. This may be a natural correction to earlier estimates, following a September in which the sector unexpectedly added 7,200 jobs (5.5 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Annually the supersector added 2,589 jobs (0.7 percent). All three component sectors grew on the year, with Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services adding 926 jobs (0.6 percent), Management of Companies and Enterprises adding 1,415 (1.8 percent), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services adding 248 (0.2 percent).

Educational and Health Services

Educational and Health Services added 2,500 jobs (0.5 percent) in November. Most of that came from Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 2,400 jobs (0.5 percent), while Educational Services added 100 jobs, growth of 0.2 percent from October’s estimate. Annually Educational and Health Services added 14,609 jobs (2.8 percent). While this isn’t the fastest over-the-year annual growth for a supersector, it is by far the largest growth in actual jobs. Educational Services lost 1,427 jobs (2 percent), and the supersector’s growth was entirely centered in Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 16,036 jobs (3.6 percent). Those 16,036 would represent more than half of the 31,978 total jobs gained in Minnesota since November 2015, even though the sector itself currently contains less than 16 percent of the actual jobs in the state.

Leisure and Hospitality

Leisure and Hospitality added 1,800 jobs (0.7 percent) in November. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation added 1,700 jobs (4.6 percent) while Accommodation and Food Services added 100 (0.0 percent). Annually the supersector lost 1,087 jobs (0.4 percent). Arts, Entertainment and Recreation lost 2,770 (7.7 percent) while Accommodation and Food Services added 1,683 (0.8 percent).

Other Services

Employment in the Other Services supersector was down by 200 (0.2 percent) in November. Over the year Other Services added 71 jobs (0.1 percent). Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations added 216 jobs (0.3 percent), and Repair and Maintenance added 36 (0.2 percent) while Personal and Laundry Services lost 181 jobs (0.6 percent).

Government

Government employers lost 800 jobs (0.2 percent) in November, with State Government leading that decline, down 800 (0.8 percent) with offsetting gains and losses in Federal and Local government. Annually Government added 2008 jobs (0.5 percent). State Government added 2,119 jobs (2 percent) with 2,023 of that coming in State Educational Services.


Minnesota Seasonally Adjusted Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment
(in thousands)
Industry Nov-16 Oct-16 Sep-16
Total Nonfarm 2,899.7 2,894.7 2,905.6
Goods-Producing 442.3 439.1 441.0
Mining and Logging 5.6 5.6 5.7
Construction 121.3 117.9 118.2
Manufacturing 315.4 315.6 317.1
Service-Providing 2,457.4 2,455.6 2,464.6
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 530.8 530.8 532.2
Information 51.3 51.1 51.4
Financial Activities 186.0 184.7 183.3
Professional and Business Services 361.9 364.9 367.0
Educational and Health 529.3 526.8 529.0
Leisure and Hospitality 258.9 257.1 261.7
Other Services 115.7 115.9 115.9
Government 423.5 424.3 424.1
Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development,. Current Employent Statistics, 2016.



line graph-Minnesota Employment Growth


*Over-the-year data are not seasonally adjusted because of small changes in seasonal adjustment factors from year to year. Also, there is no seasonality in over-the-year changes.

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