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Industrial Analysis

by Nick Dobbins
nicholas.dobbins@state.mn.us
April 2020

Monthly analysis is based on seasonally adjusted employment data.
Yearly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

(Over-the-year data are not seasonally adjusted because of small changes in seasonal adjustment factors from year to year. Also, there is no seasonality in over-the-year changes.)

Overview

The state of Minnesota lost 14,400 jobs (0.5 percent) in March, the worst over-the-month performance for the state since April of 2013. The private sector drove those losses (off by 15,400 or 0.6 percent) as public sector employers added jobs on the month. Goods producers lost 1,100 jobs (0.2 percent), and service providers lost 13,300 (0.5 percent). Over the year the state lost 10,144 jobs (0.3 percent). It was the worst over-the-year job loss since the tail end of the last recession in the spring of 2010. The losses came entirely in the private sector, which was down 13,994 (0.6 percent). Goods producers lost 2,987 jobs (0.7 percent), and private service providers lost 11,007 (0.5 percent).

Mining and Logging

Employment in Mining and Logging was flat in March, holding at 6,600 jobs for the third consecutive month. Annually the supersector lost 48 jobs (0.8 percent). It was the fifth consecutive month of over-the-year job losses for the supersector.

Construction

Construction employment was up slightly in March, adding 100 jobs (0.1 percent). While gains were modest, Construction was one of only three supersectors to add jobs in March. Over the year the supersector added 0.9 percent (930 job) and was one of only four supersectors to show positive over-the-year job growth. Residential Building Construction was up by 529 (4.4 percent), and Specialty Trade Contractors added 1,772 jobs (2.5 percent), while Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction lost 710 jobs (6.7 percent).

Manufacturing

Employment in the Manufacturing industry group was off by 1,200 jobs (0.4 percent) in March, with all of those losses coming in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing (down 1,200 or 1 percent). Over the year Manufacturing employers lost 3,869 jobs (1.2 percent). Durable Goods manufacturers shed 3,741 jobs (1.8 percent), and Non-Durable Goods manufacturers lost 128 (0.1 percent). The Food Manufacturing component was off by 2.5 percent (1,133 jobs).

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities employers added 2,700 jobs (0.5 percent) in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was the strongest monthly performance of any supersector in the state. Retail Trade drove the growth, adding 3,300 jobs (1.1 percent). Annually Trade, Transportation, and Utilities added 1,624 jobs (0.3 percent), showing improvement from February’s 0.6 percent over-the-year job loss. It was the first time since January of 2019 that the supersector showed any annual job growth. Retail Trade drove the growth, adding 2,119 jobs (0.7 percent).

Information

Information employers lost 300 jobs (0.7 percent) in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The decline came on the heels of two consecutive months of positive job growth for the supersector. Over the year Information employment was off by 1,144 (2.5 percent). The supersector has been gradually shedding jobs fairly consistently for almost 20 years.

Financial Activities

Financial Activities employment was down by 200 (0.1 percent). All of that loss came from Finance and Insurance, which was down 300 (0.2 percent), while Real Estate and Rental and Leasing added 100 jobs (0.3 percent). On the year, employment in Financial Activities was down by 1,521 (0.8 percent). Finance and Insurance was down 1,133 (0.7 percent), and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing was down 388 (1.1 percent).

Professional and Business Services

Professional and Business Services employers shed 4,100 jobs (1.1 percent) in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The declines were driven by Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services, which lost 4,200 jobs (3.1 percent). Over the year Professional and Business Services lost 4,316 jobs (1.2 percent), a notable drop from February’s 0.4 percent over-the-year decline. As was the case over the month, March declines came primarily in Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services and, more specifically, in Employment Services which was off by 4,169 or 7.2 percent. The sector had been showing growing annual losses in prior months.

Educational and Health Services

Employment in Educational and Health Services was off by 2,400 (0.4 percent) in March, with losses in both Educational Services (down 1,400 or 2 percent) and Health Care and Social Assistance (down 1,000 or 0.2 percent). Over the year the supersector lost 4,310 jobs (0.8 percent). Educational Services employment was off by 1.1 percent (823 jobs), down from -0.4 percent in February, and Health Care and Social Assistance was off 0.7 percent (3,487 jobs), down from -0.5 percent in February. Nursing and Residential Care facilities continued to drive the losses, as they shed 4,142 jobs (3.8 percent) on the year.

Leisure and Hospitality

Leisure and Hospitality employment was down sharply in March as the supersector shed 8,100 jobs (2.9 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Most of those losses came in Accommodation and Food Services, which was off by 7,800 jobs or 3.4 percent. Over-the-year declines in the supersector were also large, as Leisure and Hospitality employers lost 3,439 jobs (1.3 percent) in March. The decline came immediately after the supersector posted an increase of 1.3 percent in February, which was one of the strongest over-the-year performances last month. Accommodation and Food Services lost 4,814 jobs (2.2 percent) while Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation added 1,375 jobs (3.2 percent).

Other Services

Employment in Other Services was down by 1,900 (1.6 percent) in March, which may be at least partially a correction to February’s 2.0 percent seasonally adjusted increase. Annually the supersector added 2,099 jobs or 1.9 percent. It was the largest proportional over-the-year job growth of any supersector in the state. Repair and Maintenance added 1,609 jobs.

Government

Government employers added 1,000 jobs (0.2 percent) in March, with growth at all three levels of government.

Over the year public sector employment increased by 3,850 jobs (0.9 percent) as all three levels of government added jobs. The only component sector to lose jobs on the year was the U.S. Postal Service, where employment was down by 160 or 1.3 percent.

Minnesota Seasonally Adjusted Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

(Data In Thousands)

 

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Total Nonfarm

2,963.2

2,977.6

2,984.1

Goods-Producing

454.1

455.2

455.2

Mining and Logging

6.6

6.6

6.6

Construction

125.6

125.5

125.7

Manufacturing

321.9

323.1

322.9

Service-Providing

2,509.1

2,522.4

2,528.9

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

531.1

528.4

532.2

Information

45.4

45.7

45.6

Financial Activities

191.1

191.3

191.6

Professional and Business Services

379.4

383.5

387.4

Educational and Health Services

546.8

549.2

551.2

Leisure and Hospitality

272.3

280.4

279.3

Other Services

114.7

116.6

114.9

Government

428.3

427.3

426.7

Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development, current Employment Statistics, 2020


Graph- Minnesota Employment Growth, March 2019 to March 2020

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