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December 2020 - Minnesota Economic Trends

Our December issue of Trends provides information about the impacts of COVID-19 on the Minnesota economy. This includes our 3rd Quarter forecast, which presents scenarios for job recovery, an article about the profile of risk for prolonged unemployment based on demographic characteristics, and an article exploring CARES Act-related federal and state spending in Minnesota. 

The Impact of COVID-19 on Minnesota’s Labor Market

Between March and August 2020, 678,225 Minnesotans filed a jobless claim that was certified as eligible for a benefit payment. This figure is 85% above the baseline recorded during the same months in 2018 and 2019, representing a historic surge in unemployment attributable wholly or in part to the COVID19 pandemic.

Minnesota's 3rd Quarter Jobs Forecast

Minnesota’s jobs forecast is linked to the trajectory of the coronavirus and the size of any future round of federal stimulus. Job growth is expected to slow over the coming months and a recovery of all jobs lost is not projected to be reached until late 2022 or early 2023.

Thanks Uncle Sam: CARES Act-Related Federal and State Spending in Minnesota

Four coronavirus bills were passed earlier this year providing funds to keep people afloat as the economy crashed and to support efforts to keep people at home to contain the coronavirus spread and provide time for health care systems to prepare .

Assessing the Initial Impact of COVID-19 on Minnesota Employment and Business Establishments

COVID-19 struck Minnesota's labor market twice by reducing the capacity of expanding and opening establishments to add jobs and by increasing job destruction at contracting and closing establishments.

What Could Have Been

This article examines what has happened in Minnesota’s economy in 2020 and what could have been if the pandemic hadn’t dramatically changed the labor market landscape.

Diverging Paths – Initial Impacts of COVID-19 on Northern Minnesota's Economy

While the Northwest and Northeast regions share many characteristics, the impact of COVID-19 on each region’s labor market has been very different.

Uncertainty and Unemployment

Due to uncertainty in the economy, concerns about exposure to the coronavirus on the job, and the need to care for children, unemployment rate declines were also accompanied by labor force declines.

Understanding Occupations in Demand

Having a comprehensive understanding of occupations in demand that considers job vacancies, currently unemployed workers, long term demand projections and regional differences in labor market supply and demand is critical to helping employers, job seekers, career counselors and educators during these difficult times.

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