Saint Paul – A new report from the Minnesota Department of Administration’s State Demographic Center puts a powerful lens on the demographic and economic characteristics in areas often referred to as Greater Minnesota. The report, Greater Minnesota: Refined & Revisited, presents an up-to-date portrait of residents who live outside of urban areas, using data from small building blocks (census tracts) to create a more nuanced understanding of these communities.

“The richness of Minnesota’s diversity is often lost in the casual reviews of metropolitan and rural differences,” said Administration Commissioner Matt Massman. “The State Demographic Center’s report provides a unique analysis of the demographics within the regions that will better inform policy discussions.”

“We wanted to investigate beyond the typical Twin Cities versus Greater Minnesota dichotomy,” said State Demographer Susan Brower, “to help people understand how Minnesota is changing, especially for residents living outside of our urban areas. We all know that Greater Minnesota has many storylines, but our report reveals this with data.”

The report details the experiences of Minnesota’s residents using a four-tiered definition of an area’s character—urban, large town, small town, and rural—based on both population size and proximity to other communities. About 73% of Minnesota’s population, numbering more than 3.9 million people, lives in an urban geography. Eleven percent, or nearly 609,000 people, lives in or nearby large towns with 10,000-49,999 residents. Another 7%, or nearly 390,000 people lives in or nearby small towns with 2,500-9,999 residents, while 8% of Minnesota’s population, representing more than 434,000 people, lives in more remote rural areas.

A key challenge identified is that older residents are more common in non-urban areas. While 32% of urban Minnesotans are age 50 or above, that rate rises to 38% of large town residents, 41% of small town residents and 44% of rural Minnesotans—which heralds concern for the future workforce in our state’s smaller communities. In addition, more than 1 in 20 residents in rural and small town areas are 80+ presently, a rate that is anticipated to continue rising.

“This report gives us a sense of the scope of older adults living in remote areas with challenges to delivering health and other services,” Brower commented. “Fortunately, the efforts we undertake now to serve them will benefit the even greater numbers of older adults that we’ll see in the coming decades.”

The report also found that urban workers’ median earnings are $10,000 or more higher than all other geography types—due in part to the industry mix. Rural, small town, and large town residents who work full-time are two or more times more likely to live in poverty than urban residents who do so.

Due to the importance of counties for service delivery, the report also unpacks the natural change resulting from births and deaths, and net migration—that collectively reveal which county types are growing or declining in population, and why. In the present decade (2010-2015), the counties that are non-urban (as a group) have seen population losses, while counties that were entirely or partially urban (as a group) saw gains. Entirely urban counties, however, were the only county type growing as a result of migration (not due to births) and only due to international arrivals, ultimately.

“Migration will increasingly drive growth,” says Brower. “Many Minnesota counties are experiencing slowing or negative natural change due to continued low birth rates and larger groups of people entering the later years of their lives. Counties from edge to edge of our state will be more reliant on migration if they are to grow in the future.”

The full report is available at the following webpage: http://mn.gov/admin/demography/reports-resources/greater-mn-refined-and-revisited.jsp

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For additional information, please contact:
Susan Brower, State Demographer
susan.brower@state.mn.us
(651) 201-2472