Our Projections

Employing historical and emerging patterns in births, deaths, and migration, the State Demographic Center produces population projections for Minnesota and its 87 counties.

Key Findings
Data & Reports
FAQ

Key Findings
Key Findings from May 2024 dataset
- The total population of Minnesota is projected to grow from 5.78 million in 2024 to 6.11 million in 2075.
- Natural change from births and deaths is expected to decline over the years, turning negative by 2065, indicating that deaths will outnumber births.
- Net migration will contribute positively to population growth, though the numbers are relatively modest compared to the overall population.
- Minnesota's population in the 65+ age group will more than double from 2024 to 2075.
- The population in younger age groups (0-19 years) shows a relatively stable but slowly declining trend.
- Black and Indigenous communities and other communities of Color are projected to grow at a faster rate than the White population. By 2075:
  - The White population is expected to decrease from around 4.45 million in 2024 to about 3.98 million.
  - The Black population will increase from 440,627 in 2024 to 785,638.
  - The Asian population will rise from 323,309 in 2024 to 498,668.
  - The American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population will see modest growth from 60,949 in 2024 to 65,522.
  - Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) population will grow from 3,571 in 2024 to 7,179.
- The counties projected to experience the most significant population:
  - Growth - Dakota County (+112,355), Washington County (+110,647), Anoka County (+91,850), Wright County (+86,404), Olmsted County (+46,359), Scott County (+44,527), Carver County (+42,268), Sherburne County (+29,419), Crow Wing County (+18,278), and Isanti County (+17,523).
  - Decline - Ramsey County (-128,966), Hennepin County (-64,509), St. Louis County (-26,036), Stearns County (-23,084), Polk County (-10,316), Beltrami County (-6,006), Freeborn County (-5,848), Pine County (-5,563), Winona County (-5,429), and Koochiching County (-5,414).
Data & Reports
DATA (May 2024)
- Click here to download the most recent population projections dataset. (Statewide age sex tab corrected 7/1/24)
- Data are available statewide through 2075.
- Data are available for counties and Economic Development Regions by age, sex, and race through 2055.
- This dataset fulfills Minnesota State Statutes 4A.02 and 4A.03.
METHODS (May 2024)
- This document outlines the methodology employed to generate comprehensive population projections for Minnesota. These projections estimate future population distributions across various geographic levels and demographic dimensions within the state, including age, sex, and race. The process ensures that the projections are accurate, reliable, and internally consistent.
- Click here to download
Note: Our office does not currently produce projections for cities.
FAQ

What are these projections used for?
Our various projections are valuable tools for planning for Minnesota counties, cities and townships--as well as for service providers and others who may work with a particular population, such as older adults.

What inputs are used to create these population projections?
We examine historical and recent patterns of birth, death, and migration. Vital statistics data are obtained from the MN Department of Health. We also employ data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Decennial Census, Population Estimates, and American Community Survey. For detailed methods, please see the methodology documents on the respective tabs.

Are these projections different than those produced by the Metropolitan Council?
Yes. The State Demographic Center employs a different methodology than does the Met Council in its forecasting work. Additionally, our office produces projections for all 87 counties, not just the 7 in the Twin Cities metro area.

Are these projections different than those produced by the U.S. Census Bureau?
Yes. The State Demographic Center uses Census Bureau projections as an input in its projections, but prepares its own projections. The Census Bureau does not produce projections for Minnesota counties, only the state as a whole.

Whom should I contact for more information?
Questions about our population and other projections should be directed to our Senior Demographer Megan Dayton.