Methodology & Timeline
Minnesota Population, Household, and Labor Force Projections Plan
Last revised 12/31/24
Overview
Minnesota’s changing demographics impact everything from school enrollments and roadway planning to budget forecasts and labor force trends. This page explains the State Demographic Center’s schedule for releasing population, household, and labor force projections. It also highlights who uses these projections and how each release can help inform decisions.
Providing accurate, up-to-date demographic data is critical for informed decision-making across Minnesota. The next decade’s projections will integrate new sources, evaluate past releases, and respond to evolving policy needs. Stakeholder engagement will guide these efforts, creating a robust foundation of information for local and state-level planning.
What the Projections Include
- Population Projections
- Statewide demographic trends, including age, sex, and race distributions
- Regional and county-level breakdowns across Minnesota
- Household Projections
- Number of households
- Household sizes and compositions
- Labor Force Projections
- Workforce participation rates
- Age distribution of workers
Why These Projections Matter
- Policy and Budgeting: State agencies like Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) use projected population and components of change data to inform fiscal planning.
- Infrastructure and Transportation: The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) aligns new road projects and updates existing infrastructure based on where population and job growth are likely to happen.
- Education Planning: School districts, coordinated by the Minnesota Department of Education (MDE), reply on population and household projections to forecast enrollment.
- Health and Human Services: The Minnesota Department of Human Services (DHS) uses demographic forecasts to anticipate future needs in health care, childcare, eldercare, and social services.
Projection Timeline
2020-2024 – Mid-Decade Release
- Scope: State, regional, and county population projections based on 2020 Census data
- Focus: Establishes a reliable baseline to guide planning through the decade
- What’s New: Household and labor force methodologies will be drafted during this cycle, with final projections incorporated in future updates
2025-2029 – Mid-Decade Update
- Scope: Refines and updates population, household, and labor force projections published earlier in the decade
- Evaluation: Includes a review of the 2024 projections to measure accuracy and identify improvements
- Stakeholder Feedback: Gathers input from agencies (MnDOT, MMB, MDE, DHS, and others) to ensure the data continue to meet their needs
2030-2034 – Decennial Census Full Update
- Scope: Comprehensive set of projections incorporating the 2030 Census data
- Retrospective Review: Assesses past projections to refine assumptions and methodologies
- Enhanced Data: May include more granular household types, refined labor force analyses, and updated migration assumptions
As Needed – Significant Change Updates
- Trigger: Major events or new data, such as significant shifts in migration or considerable changes to birth/death rates
- Approach: Focuses on areas most impacted by sudden demographic or economic changes rather than a full-scale overhaul
Evaluation of Past Projections
Projections are intended to show what the population, households, or labor force could look like if all underlying assumptions and trends remain constant. Reality almost always diverges to some degree – economic shifts, policy changes, migration patterns, and other factors can alter the course of demographic trends. Regular evaluations help identify where assumptions held true and where they needed adjustment.
Nevertheless, assessing the accuracy of each projection release helps maintain high-quality data. The 2029 and 2034 updates will include a thorough evaluation of the observed outcomes. We will examine actual data on births, deaths, and migration against what we projected and identify areas of greater variance to inform future assumptions. We will determine whether changes in economic conditions, policy environments, or data sources influenced any discrepancies and adjust modeling techniques and data inputs based on findings. We will also solicit input from agencies like MnDOT, MMB, MDE, and DHS to learn how projected data aligned with their experiences and use insights from these partners to refine and enhance subsequent projections.
Understanding where past projections succeeded or fell short ensures that each new iteration becomes more robust. This process keeps the projections relevant, accurate, and attuned to real-world conditions – even as those conditions continue to evolve.
How Agencies and Stakeholders Use These Data
- MnDOT: Forecasts future traffic patterns and infrastructure demands
- MMB: Plans budgets and forecasts revenues
- MDE: Anticipates school enrollments and resource needs
- DHS: Plans for medical, social, and eldercare services, matching capacity to population needs
- Local Governments and Planners: Develop zoning, housing strategies, and economic development initiatives
How To Provide Feedback
Our team values insights from all data users. Contact us with questions and suggestions or to discuss specific data needs. Ongoing collaboration ensures that the information provided remains timely and practical.
