Budget & Economic Forecast
February 2014
The change in the income tax forecast since November is primarily due to an increase in
MMB’s estimate of final liability for 2012, the base year for this forecast, and increased
growth projections for some underlying economic variables, including business income.
So far in FY 2014, individual estimated income tax payments have been higher than
expected, but most of this increase is likely due to taxpayers changing the timing of their
payments, rather than higher tax liabilities.
FY 2014-15 Forecast Revenues
($ in millions)
November
Forecast
Individual Income Tax
Sales Tax
Corporate
Statewide Property Tax
Other Taxes
Total Tax Revenues
All Other Revenues, Transfers
Total Revenues
$ 19,372
10,194
2,675
1,670
3,541
37,451
1,785
$ 39,209
February
Forecast
$ 19,560
10,361
2,714
1,665
3,513
37,813
1,762
$ 39,575
$
Change
$ 188
167
38
(4)
(27)
362
4
$ 366
The increase in projected net sales tax revenues arises primarily from higher projected
growth in economic activity and higher-than-expected recent sales tax receipts. However,
because of uncertainty about the impact of recent law changes, this forecast does not
reflect the higher growth rates implied by actual year-to-date receipts.
Spending: Forecast spending declined $48 million (0.1 percent). Total projected general
fund expenditures and transfers are now expected to be $39.019 billion for the current
biennium.
FY 2014-15 Forecast Expenditures
($ in millions)
November
Forecast
K-12 Education
Property Tax Aids & Credits
Health & Human Services
Debt Service
All Other
Forecast Spending
$16,654
2,946
11,327
1,252
6,887
$39,067
February
Forecast
$16,625
2,923
11,343
1,253
6,875
$39,019
$
Change
$(29)
(24)
16
1
(12)
$(48)
5