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Profile of Risk for Prolonged Unemployment

This dashboard presents three risk indicators which, when taken together, help identify which types of workers and sectors of the economy could be at higher risk of prolonged unemployment:

* Average UI weeks represents the average number of weeks of continued claims filed by each individual within each group from March 16 to the most recent time period for which data are available. Longer unemployment spells lower the probability of quick re-employment.

* Percent Ever permanently separated from employer represents the share of claimants who did not expect to return to their employer at the time of filing.

* Percent Continued filing after Oct 3 represents the share of claimants who continued to request benefits after October 3 and who, most likely, had not returned to work or had returned at reduced hours.

The dashboard also allows for comparison of the composition of claimants during the COVID period to that of the labor force and to the levels of claimants in the past two years in order to identify the most impacted demographic, occupational, and industry groups. Specifically:

* Percent of Labor force represents the share of each group over the total 2019 workforce. When a group’s share of labor force is lower than the group’s share of total claimants it means that the group’s participation in UI is disproportionately large compared to the group’s labor force size.

* Percent likely claimed due to COVID represents the share of claimants, within each group, who surpassed the number that would have been expected given the levels seen during the same months in 2018 and 2019. Comparing current numbers to a past baseline allows us to gauge the share of individuals who claimed either wholly or in part because of COVID as opposed to normal UI activity in previous years. In total, the difference between actual and expected levels in 2020 was 85%, indicating a historic surge in claimants.

All figures (except % labor force) are based on the 678,225 Minnesotans who filed a continued claim since March. Use the check boxes in the second tab to filter by region. To help interpret the results, see this article by A.Leibert

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