Skip to Content

Minnesota Economic Forecast

Latest: February 28, 2014

Banner_MN[2]Minnesota’s economy continues to make solid gains. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports the state’s real GDP rose 3.5 percent in 2012, ranking among the six fastest-growing state economies during that year, and most labor market indicators suggest that trend continued in 2013. Minnesota’s unemployment rate ended the year at 4.6 percent, the lowest level since just before the recession began in December 2007 and a full two percentage points less than the nation. First time claims for jobless benefits have fallen to levels not observed in more than a decade. And leading indicators, such as temporary help employment, average hours worked, job vacancies, and the number of unemployed remain strong. On top of that, the state added 46,000 net new jobs, or 1.7 percent, in 2013, slightly stronger than the national rate of 1.6 percent, and gains are occurring across every major industry, with the exception of manufacturing and federal government employment. 

That diverse economic revival has helped Minnesota recover from recession faster than the nation. As of December 2013, state employment levels are now 16,800 jobs above the pre-recession peak. Nationally, employment remains about 1.2 million jobs (or 0.9 percent) below the peak.

Forecasts for state employment and wages have been revised based on recent Minnesota specific information and GI’s February 2014 baseline. Economists at MMB believe that Minnesota’s labor market continues to improve, and that better economic fundamentals are setting the stage for stronger and broader growth over the next several years. In MMB’s February 2014 economic forecast, employment and income growth remain modest early this year, before accelerating during the second half of 2014, reflecting stronger consumer and business fundamentals in the broader U.S. economy, rising demand for new home construction, and improving global growth.

Still, uncertainties remain. Any unanticipated adverse developments in the U.S. economy, such as a longer than expected downshift in economic activity early this year, will have unfavorable effects on the Minnesota economy.

Read More :

>>  Minnesota Economic Outlook (pdf)

>>  U.S. Economic Outlook (pdf)

>>  Council of Economic Advisers' Statement (pdf)

>>  Appendix Table: Minnesota Economic Forecast Summary (pdf)

>>  Appendix Table: U.S. Economic Forecast Summary (pdf)

>>  Appendix Table: Minnesota and U.S. Forecast Comparison (pdf)

Data Tables :

>>  Minnesota Annual Forecast Data (xlsx)

>>  U.S. Annual Forecast Data (xlsx)

Note: These economic forecasts were prepared in February 2014, and are based on information available at that time.