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Minnesota Economic Forecast

Latest: December 4, 2014

Banner_MN[2]Minnesota’s expansion continues to make steady progress. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports the state’s real GDP rose 2.8 percent in 2013, a full percentage point faster than the nation, and most indicators suggest the labor market tightened up considerably in 2014. Minnesota’s jobless rate dropped to 3.9 percent in October, the fifth lowest among states and matching the low point of the previous 2002-2007 economic expansion. Unemployment has fallen across age, gender, and racial cohorts. The number of officially long-term unemployed (6 months or longer) is less than half what it was in mid-2010, and the rate of involuntary part-time employment has fallen sharply as well. However, Minnesota’s labor force growth remains very weak and wage pressures have yet to emerge. Moreover, the state’s housing recovery has stalled in part due to unexpectedly slow household formation. As a result, MMB’s Minnesota economic outlook has weakened since it was last prepared in February.

MMB’s November 2014 economic forecast calls for Minnesota’s expansion to continue to accelerate over the next several years, but at a slower pace than the national average. Employment is expected to remain modest in 2015 and 2016, as the pace of wage growth steadily picks up. This reflects improvements in household formation and labor force growth, a rebound in productivity, and stronger consumer and business fundamentals in the broader U.S. economy.

Read More :

>>  Minnesota Economic Outlook (pdf)

>>  U.S. Economic Outlook (pdf)

>>  Council of Economic Advisers' Statement (pdf)

>>  Appendix Tables: Minnesota & U.S. Economic Forecast Summary (pdf)

Data Tables :

>>  Minnesota Annual Forecast Data (xlsx)

>>  U.S. Annual Forecast Data (xlsx)

Note: These economic forecasts were prepared in November 2014, and are based on information available at that time. 

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