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Budget & Economic Forecast

Twice each year we prepare the Budget and Economic Forecast as required by Minnesota law. The November forecast is used to set the starting point for the budget, and is the basis for the Governor’s recommendations. The February forecast incorporates additional data and is used by the Legislature and the Governor to set the enacted budget or to ensure that enacted budgets remain on track and in balance. Forecast information is also used by bond rating agencies and other financial analysts to review the state's financial health, and by the media who present information on the state's financial condition to the public.

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Banner_B&EF Latest: November 2014 Budget & Economic Forecast 

December 4, 2014

>>  Read Forecast At A Glance (pdf)   

>>  Read Complete Document (pdf)

>>  News Conference Handout (pdf)

Minnesota’s budget outlook has improved from previous estimates despite a weaker U.S. economic outlook. Strong income growth in 2013 contributed to higher than expected income tax revenues in FY 2014; while increases in non-wage income more than offset lower wage growth for FY 2015. When combined with $249 million savings from lower than expected heath care spending, these changes produce a forecast balance of $556 million for FY 2014-15.  However, new statutory provisions allocate 33 percent ($183 million) of the forecast balance to the budget reserve, leaving a projected budgetary balance of $373 million for the current biennium. 

The balance between revenues and spending in the next biennium has changed minimally. General fund revenues in FY 2016-17 are expected to grow to $41.9 billion, while projected current law spending is projected to be just under $41.3 billion.  The $373 million ending balance forecast for current biennium adds to the resources available for the next biennium. As a result, $1.037 billion is expected to be available for the upcoming FY 2016-17 biennial budget. 

Supplemental Material

>>  Minnesota Economic Forecast

>>  Supporting Budget Documents

>>  Additional Budget Data

Related Publications

>>  Latest Revenue & Economic Update

>>   February 2014 Budget & Economic Forecast (pdf)

>>   November 2013 Budget & Economic Forecast (pdf)  

>>   Forecasts & Updates Library

Watch: Press Conference on November 2014 Budget & Economic Forecast

December 4, 2014

>>  Video Gallery