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Industrial Analysis

by Nick Dobbins
nicholas.dobbins@state.mn.us
October 2016

Monthly analysis is based on seasonally adjusted employment data.
Yearly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.*

Overview

Minnesota added 1,900 jobs (0.1 percent) in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. August’s estimate was also revised upward, moving it from an estimated loss of 1,500 to a gain of 500. September’s gains came largely from public sector employers, as the government added 1,600 jobs (0.4 percent). Private Service Providers added 100 jobs (0.0 percent) while Goods Producers added 200 (0.0 percent). These small movements in the private sector as a whole belied the volatile movement in component supersectors, as some industry groups saw significant gains or losses. Over the year the state added 40,899 jobs (1.4 percent). Private Service Providing industries added 33,346 (1.7 percent) while Goods Producing industries added 4,793 (1.1 percent). Public sector employers added 2,760 jobs (0.7 percent). Minnesota has added employment on an over-the-year basis in every month dating back to August of 2010.

Mining and Logging

Employment in the Mining and Logging supersector was up in August as the beleaguered industry group added 100 jobs (1.8 percent). Over the year the supersector lost 950 jobs (13.8 percent). However, since some of the most dramatic job losses in the supersector first appeared in December of 2015, we might expect those annual declines to shrink within the next few months.

Construction

Employment in the Construction supersector declined slightly in September, down by 600 jobs (0.5 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the second straight month of declines for the industry group. Annually Construction added 6,280 jobs (4.9 percent). The over-the-year gain was largely the result of an additional 2,657 jobs (12.8 percent) in Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction and 2,694 jobs (3.4 percent) in Specialty Trade Contractors. Construction of Buildings, the other component sector, added 929 jobs (3.5 percent), including a loss of 10 jobs (0.1 percent) in Residential Building Construction.

Manufacturing

Manufacturers added 700 jobs (0.2 percent) in September. Durable Goods Manufacturers added 600 jobs (0.3 percent) while Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers added 100 jobs (0.1 percent). Unfortunately, this minor seasonally adjusted growth was not enough to pull the supersector out of the red on an over-the-year basis. Since September of 2015, Manufacturing lost 537 jobs (0.2 percent). The loss was caused by a decline of 1,398 jobs (0.7 percent) in Durable Goods Manufacturing, with Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing losing 805 jobs (1.9 percent) and Machinery Manufacturing losing 256 (0.8 percent). Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, however, added employment on the year, up 861 jobs (0.7 percent) from September 2015.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Employment in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was off by 2,900 (0.5 percent) in September, giving back most of the 3,000 job increase the supersector saw in August. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities showed the sharpest decline, down by 3,300 (3.2 percent), while Wholesale Trade contributed a loss of 600 (0.5 percent). Retail Trade remained a bright spot in the supersector, adding 1,000 jobs (0.3 percent) on the month. Annually the supersector added 1,776 jobs (0.3 percent). Retail Trade showed the most positive movement on this scale as well, up by 4,611 (1.6 percent), while Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities chipped in with an additional 614 jobs of their own. Wholesale Trade lost 3,459 jobs (2.6 percent), which kept a lid on the overall annual growth in the supersector.

Information

The Information supersector added 300 jobs (0.6 percent) in September. This was the fourth consecutive month of estimated job growth for the supersector, which had been struggling overall for quite some time. Annually employment in Information remained down in spite of the recent upward trend in monthly seasonally adjusted employment. The supersector was off by 977 jobs (1.9 percent) from September of 2015, with Publishing Industries (except Internet) leading the way with a drop of 777 jobs (3.9 percent).

Financial Activities

The Financial Activities supersector lost 400 jobs (0.2 percent) in September. The losses came entirely from Finance and Insurance, which shed 1,600 jobs (1.1 percent) while its counterpart, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, added 1,200 jobs (3.1 percent). Over the year the supersector added 2,611 jobs (1.4 percent). Finance and Insurance added 1,596 jobs (1.1 percent) on the back of a gain of 1,927 jobs (2.9 percent) in Insurance Carriers and Related Activities. Real Estate and Rental and Leasing added 1,015 jobs (2.6 percent).

Professional and Business Services

Professional and Business Services employment grew sharply in September as the supersector added 10,500 jobs (2.9 percent). Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services added 8,000 jobs (6.1 percent), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services added 2,300 (1.6 percent), and Management of Companies and Enterprises added 200 (0.3 percent). Annually the supersector added 10,701 jobs (3 percent). Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services added 4,026 jobs (2.8 percent). Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services added 5,270 jobs (3.9 percent). However, Management of Companies and Enterprises shed employment, losing 654 jobs (1.8 percent).

Educational and Health Services

Educational and Health Services lost 3,800 jobs (0.7 percent) in September as both component sectors shed employment. Educational Services lost 2,500 jobs (3.6 percent) while Health Care and Social Assistance lost 1,300 jobs (0.3 percent). Annually the supersector added 14,129 jobs (2.8 percent). All of that gain was in Health Care and Social Assistance, which added 17,105 jobs (3.9 percent), primarily on the strength of 13,147 new jobs (a 9.1 percent gain) in Ambulatory Health Care Services, which includes Offices of Physicians and Dentists. Educational Services lost jobs on an annual basis, off 2,976 (4.3 percent) from 2015. This marked the first over-the-year job loss in the sector since December of 2014.

Leisure and Hospitality

Leisure and Hospitality lost 3,700 jobs (1.4 percent) in September as both component sectors saw losses. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation shed 1,800 jobs (4.3 percent) while Accommodation and Food Services lost 1,900 jobs (0.8 percent). Annually the supersector added 3,616 jobs (1.4 percent). Accommodation and Food Services accounted for all of that gain, adding 4,422 jobs (2 percent), all of that in Food Services and Drinking Places (up 4,718 or 2.4 percent).

Other Services

Employment in Other Services was up slightly in September as the supersector added 100 jobs (0.1 percent). Over the year Other Services added 1,500 jobs (1.3 percent), with Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations (up 1,498 or 2.3 percent) driving that growth while movement in the other two component sectors was minimal.

Government

Government employment was up by 1,600 (0.4 percent) in September. Local Governments added 2,200 jobs (0.8 percent), while the Federal Government added 300 (0.9 percent), and the State lost 900 (0.9 percent). Annually Government employers added 2,760 jobs (0.7 percent). The single largest growth among component sectors was in State Government, Excluding Education, which added 3,405 jobs (8.3 percent).


Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment (in thousands)
Industry Sep-16 Aug-16 Jul-16
Total Nonfarm 2,905.3 2,903.4 2,902.9
Goods-Producing 442.3 442.1 444.3
Mining and Logging 5.7 5.6 5.6
Construction 119.3 119.9 121.6
Manufacturing 317.3 316.6 317.1
Service-Providing 2,463.0 2,461.3 2,458.6
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 530.0 532.9 529.9
Information 51.4 51.1 50.5
Financial Activities 183.3 183.7 184.3
Professional and Business Services 367.7 357.2 357.4
Educational and Health Services 528.8 532.6 532.4
Leisure and Hospitality 261.6 265.3 265.8
Other Services 116.1 116.0 116.4
Government 424.1 422.5 421.9
Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development, Current Employment Statistics, 2016.



bar graph-Minnesota Employment Growth, September 2015 to September 2016


*Over-the-year data are not seasonally adjusted because of small changes in seasonal adjustment factors from year to year. Also, there is no seasonality in over-the-year changes.

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