Employment Projections in Central Minnesota

by Cameron Macht
June 2013

After leading the state in job growth over the last 10 years, Central Minnesota is again projected to be the fastest growing region of the state in the future according to DEED’s Employment Projections. The 13-county planning region is expected to gain more than 50,000 net new jobs in the next decade, an 18.3 percent growth rate, which is 5 percent faster than the state of Minnesota as a whole.

Central Minnesota has about 10 percent of the state’s total employment, but is expected to account for almost 15 percent of the state’s employment growth from 2010 to 2020. If these trends hold true, Central Minnesota may have almost 335,000 jobs by the end of the decade (Table 1).

Table 1

Central Minnesota Industry Employment Projections, 2010 to 2020

NAICS Industry Title

Estimated
Employment
2010

Projected
Employment
2020

Percent
Change
2010-2020

Numeric
Change
2010-2020

Total, All Industries

281,615

333,237

18.3%

51,622

Health Care and Social Assistance

40,469

56,783

40.3%

16,314

Construction

11,714

17,757

51.6%

6,043

Retail Trade

33,066

37,527

13.5%

4,461

Manufacturing

35,603

39,725

11.6%

4,122

Administrative Support and Waste Management Services

9,146

12,518

36.9%

3,372

Nonagricultural Self-employed

18,105

20,916

15.5%

2,811

Accommodation and Food Services

19,174

21,562

12.5%

2,388

Public Administration

42,982

45,321

5.4%

2,339

Transportation and Warehousing

7,406

9,296

25.5%

1,890

Wholesale Trade

9,320

11,172

19.9%

1,852

Professional and Technical Services

5,817

7,528

29.4%

1,711

Other Services

11,303

12,823

13.4%

1,520

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

5,861

7,100

21.1%

1,239

Finance and Insurance

6,631

7,506

13.2%

875

Real Estate, Rental and Leasing

2,009

2,341

16.5%

332

Educational Services

2,427

2,689

10.8%

262

Management of Companies

1,444

1,700

17.7%

256

Utilities

2,410

2,614

8.5%

204

Information

3,328

3,520

5.8%

192

Mining

265

300

13.2%

35

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting

5,362

5,089

-5.1%

-273

Agricultural Self-employed

7,773

7,450

-4.2%

-323

Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections

Growth Industries

All but one of Central Minnesota’s major industries are projected to grow in the next decade, including 13 industries adding more than 1,000 jobs apiece.

Nearly one-third of the new jobs are expected to be created in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry, which is also expected to be the second fastest growing industry. If recent trends continue, Health Care and Social Assistance may jump from about 40,500 jobs in 2010 to almost 57,000 jobs in 2020, a 40.3 percent increase.

After struggling during the recession and recovery, the Construction industry is projected to be the fastest growing industry in the next 10 years. As population growth resumes in the region, Construction is anticipated to add more than 6,000 jobs through 2020, a 51.6 percent growth rate.

Likewise, the Manufacturing industry is expected to rebound in Central Minnesota, potentially adding just over 4,000 jobs in the next 10 years, an 11.6 percent expansion. That job count would still be about 6,000 jobs lower than it was at the turn of the century, when there were nearly 46,000 manufacturing jobs in the region. However, the related Administrative Support and Waste Management Services industry — which includes the temporary staffing agencies that many manufacturers are now using to adjust their workforce levels quickly— is also projected to gain almost 3,400 jobs.

As consumer confidence returns, Retail Trade is anticipated to offer 4,500 net new jobs, while Accommodation and Food Services could welcome almost 2,400 net new jobs. Combined, those two customer-friendly industries would have just under 60,000 jobs in the region by 2020, keeping it at about 18 percent of total employment.

Only Agriculture is expected to see job declines in the next decade. Covered employment in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting is expected to drop by about 275 jobs, while self-employment in Agriculture is projected to fall about 325 jobs, for a total loss of 600 agriculture jobs in the region.

Pick a Job, Any Job

Likewise, all but one occupational group is expected to grow in the region — ironically, the farming, fishing, and forestry group is the only one projected to wilt. The other 21 occupational groups should see employment expansion, ranging from a 5 percent increase in management occupations to a 40 percent jump in personal care and service occupations (Table 2).

Table 2

Central Minnesota Occupation Employment Projections, 2010 to 2020

SOC Occupational Title

Estimated
Employment
2010

Projected
Employment
2020

Percent
Change
2010 - 2020

Numeric
Change
2010 - 2020

2010 - 2020
Replacement
Openings

2010 - 2020
Total
Openings

Total, All Occupations

281,615

333,237

18.30%

51,622

66,890

119,730

Management Occupations

19,527

20,527

5.10%

1,000

4,010

5,420

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

9,440

11,368

20.40%

1,928

1,900

3,830

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

2,413

2,883

19.50%

470

460

930

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

2,639

2,880

9.10%

241

580

850

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

1,303

1,471

12.90%

168

390

560

Community and Social Service Occupations

5,966

7,313

22.60%

1,347

1,270

2,620

Legal Occupations

1,097

1,245

13.50%

148

190

340

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

16,964

18,582

9.50%

1,618

3,870

5,490

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

3,882

4,495

15.80%

613

1,030

1,670

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

15,666

19,874

26.90%

4,208

3,210

7,420

Healthcare Support Occupations

11,551

15,759

36.40%

4,208

1,600

5,810

Protective Service Occupations

3,891

4,259

9.50%

368

1,090

1,460

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

24,779

28,098

13.40%

3,319

8,640

11,970

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations

9,382

11,111

18.40%

1,729

1,670

3,400

Personal Care and Service Occupations

14,931

20,902

40.00%

5,971

3,240

9,230

Sales and Related Occupations

28,089

32,377

15.30%

4,288

8,850

13,150

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

37,781

43,070

14.00%

5,289

8,310

13,930

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

3,623

3,510

-3.10%

-113

1,080

1,120

Construction and Extraction Occupations

12,566

17,246

37.20%

4,680

2,820

7,500

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

10,982

13,495

22.90%

2,513

2,580

5,110

Production Occupations

26,281

29,781

13.30%

3,500

5,540

9,230

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

18,862

22,991

21.90%

4,129

4,560

8,700

Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections

Central Minnesota is expected to see more than 35 percent growth rates in construction and extraction jobs and health care support occupations, as well as more than 20 percent growth in the number of health care practitioners, installation, maintenance, and repair occupations, community and social service jobs, transportation and material moving occupations, and business and financial operations professionals.

The largest number of new jobs are expected to be created in personal care and service, office and administrative support, construction and extraction, sales and related, health care practitioners and health care support, and transportation and material moving occupations, which should all gain more than 4,000 net new jobs.

Everything Old is New Again

However, new jobs are just one part of the employment growth picture. DEED’s occupational projections also include replacement openings, which are an estimate of the need for new workforce entrants to replace workers who leave an occupation. Even jobs with declining employment levels will have openings as existing workers retire or otherwise change careers.

As shown in Table 2, more than half of the total openings in the region will be replacements, accounting for about 15,000 more job openings than net new jobs created. In fact, more than two-thirds (about 365 of the 535) of the occupations in Central Minnesota are expected to have more replacement openings than new jobs created.

Some traditional occupations — such as waiters and waitresses and cashiers — will have thousands of replacement openings but very few new jobs created, while other emerging occupations — such as personal care aides and home health aides — will have thousands of new jobs but very few replacements (Figure 1).

Chart: Occupations with the Most Openings in Central Minnesota, 2010-2020

About 165 occupations are projected to have at least 75 percent of their total openings come from replacement workers, including elementary and secondary school teachers, police and sheriff’s patrol officers, highway maintenance workers, and farmworkers. While these careers aren’t expected to see new job growth, there will still be opportunities for job seekers as existing workers start retiring.

In contrast, just over 20 occupations were projected to have at least 75 percent of their total openings from new jobs created, including software developers, occupational and physical therapy assistants and therapists, veterinary technicians, personal care aides, construction laborers, and brickmasons and cement masons. These jobs tend to have the fastest growth rates, with most expected to increase by about 50 percent.

Planning Ahead

DEED’s employment projections are valuable to students and job seekers who are making career planning decisions. Almost two-fifths of the 50 fastest growing occupations in the region are in the Construction industry, while another one-fourth are in Health Care and Social Assistance.

The fastest growing job, veterinary technologists and technicians, is expected nearly to double from 2010 to 2020. According to its detailed occupational description on ISEEK, most veterinary technicians have an associate degree.[1] Similarly, veterinarians are projected to be the 11th fastest growing career in the region, but require a Doctor of Veterinary Medicine (D.V.M.) degree.[2]

Those who might be thinking of investing time and money in postsecondary education need to know what jobs will be around when they graduate. Including the two described above, 19 of the 50 fastest growing occupations in the region require postsecondary vocational training, either an associate, bachelor’s, master’s, or professional degree.

However, the other 31 fastest growing jobs can be gained with on-the-job training, ranging from short-term (one month or less) to long-term (12 months or more). Despite the lower educational requirements, many of these occupations are still relatively well-paying, especially those in the Construction industry. For example, brickmasons — projected to be the fifth fastest growing occupation in the region — earn more than $26 an hour in Central Minnesota and can typically learn their craft with long-term on-the-job training (Table 3).

Students and job seekers can study the projected growth rates, educational requirements, and median wages for hundreds of careers through ISEEK www.iseek.org) and DEED’s Employment Projections.

Table 3

Fastest Growing Jobs in Central Minnesota, 2010 to 2020

SOC Occupational Title

Estimated
Employment
2010

Projected
Employment
2020

Percent
Change
2010 - 2020

2010 - 2020
Total
Openings

Most Common
Education or
Training Requirements

Median
Hourly
Wage

Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

201

389

93.5

230

Associate degree

$15.20

Helpers - Brickmasons, Blockmasons,
and Stonemasons

55

105

90.9

70

Short-term on-the-job training

$14.27

Glaziers

54

96

77.8

60

Long-term on-the-job training

$20.09

Personal Care Aides

5,263

9,204

74.9

4,360

Short-term on-the-job training

$10.66

Brickmasons and Blockmasons

242

416

71.9

220

Long-term on-the-job training

$26.18

Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers

411

686

66.9

340

Long-term on-the-job training

$26.30

Marriage and Family Therapists

33

55

66.7

30

Master’s degree

$22.67

Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers

53

87

64.2

40

Postsecondary voc. training

$26.73

Helpers - Carpenters

78

128

64.1

70

Short-term on-the-job training

$12.79

Home Health Aides

4,883

7,750

58.7

3,500

Short-term on-the-job training

$10.88

Veterinarians

185

293

58.4

150

Professional degree

$35.23

Helpers, Construction Trades, All Other

48

76

58.3

40

Short-term on-the-job training

$9.19

Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters

1,255

1,967

56.7

1,070

Long-term on-the-job training

$25.08

Physical Therapist Assistants

119

186

56.3

90

Associate degree

$20.45

Mechanical Door Repairers

89

138

55.1

70

Long-term on-the-job training

$21.13

Source:Source: DEED Long-Term Employment Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OES)


[ 1]Veterinary Technologists & Technicians. www.iseek.org/careers/

[2]Veterinarians. www.iseek.org/careers/