Industrial Analysis

by Dave Senf
December 2013

Monthly analysis is based on seasonally adjusted employment data. Yearly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.*

Overview

Employment inched down in November, slipping 800 jobs. Private Sector employment climbed 2,400, but that gain was offset by a loss of 3,200 in the Public Sector. Private Sector employment was split with 800 jobs in Private Goods Producing and 1,600 jobs in Private Service Providing. Local Government job cutbacks accounted for all of November’s waning Public Sector employment. Information added the most workers increasing jobs 2.4 percent (1,300). Financial Activities rose 0.7 percent (1,200), and Other Services added 1,100 (0.9 percent). Manufacturing employment expanded for the third consecutive month, gaining 400 jobs (0.1 percent). Construction also added 400 jobs (0.4 percent). Government employment plunged 3,200 (0.8 percent). The other big loser was Professional and Business Services which fell 0.5 percent (1,600). Employment growth has zigzagged from one month to the next but has been spread evenly over the year averaging 3,200 jobs per month during the first half of the year and 3,100 per month over the last five months.  

Mining and Logging

Employment held steady for the third straight month at 7,500. Employment in the industry is the highest it’s been since 2001, but employment growth this year is down from 2012. Most of the recent job growth has been in Mining.  

Construction

Construction employment inched up 400 (0.4 percent). Job growth for 2013 is running behind last year’s pace. Employment in the industry is up 12,500 from the recessionary trough in May 2010 but still way below the housing boom peak of 132,000 reached in February 2006. The state lost 46,100 construction jobs from the 2006 peak to the 2010 bottom.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing employment increased for the third straight month, but the gain was a moderate 400 (0.1 percent). Durable Goods Manufacturing added 100 jobs while Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing added 300. Manufacturing employment, after expanding in 2011 and 2012, stumbled during the first half of 2013 before starting to grow during the second half. The recent uptick will leave manufacturing employment at roughly the same level as a year ago.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

With a small decline of 300 jobs Trade, Transportation, and Utilities saw a 0.1 percentage point drop on a seasonally adjusted basis for November. After climbing between April and August, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities payrolls have flattened out the last few months. All three component industries have added employment during the year. Wholesale Trade added 2,500 (1.9 percent), Retail Trade added 2,600 (0.9 percent), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities added 2,300 (2.5 percent) jobs over the first 11 months of the year.

Information

Information employment surged in November, jumping 2.4 percent (1,300). The sector, which has been shedding jobs since 2001, hasn’t added that many jobs in one month since June 1996. The spike in hiring must be in Internet Service Providers, Web Search Portals, and Data Processing Services or Other Information Services since Publishing and Telecommunications workforces continue to shrink. This sector looks like it will experience annual job growth for the first time in 12 years.

Financial Activities

Employment in Financial Activities rebounded in November, increasing 0.7 percent over the month (1,200). Financial Activities employment has been climbing since bottoming out in January 2010, but the pace has been uneven. If payroll numbers continue to expand at this month’s pace, employment will soon exceed the all-time peak of 181.4 reached in March 2006. Finance and Insurance employment increased 300 (0.2 percent), while Real Estate and Rental and Leasing gained 900 workers (2.3 percent). This was the biggest monthly jump since September 2010.

Professional and Business Services

Professional and Business Services employment declined for the fifth straight month, shedding 1,600 jobs over the month (0.5 percent). The industry added 14,000 workers during the first six months of the year but has cut 10,400 positions since June. Professional and Technical Services employment was up 100 (0.1 percent), and 400 jobs were added in Management of Companies (0.5 percent). But Administrative and Support Services employment tumbled 2,100 (1.6 percent).

Educational and Health Services

Employment in Educational and Health Services took a breather from expanding in November with 200 jobs lost. Private Education increased 400 (0.6 percent), but Health and Social Assistance was down 600 (0.1 percent). This sector has added 8,500 (1.7 percent) with Health and Social Assistance accounting for
most of the 8,000 jobs added since the beginning of the year.

Leisure and Hospitality

In November, employment in Leisure and Hospitality barely changed with only 100 jobs added. Payrolls were down 600 (1.4 percent) in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation and up 700 in Accommodation and Food Services (0.3 percent) in November. The industry has added 6,600 workers since the beginning of the year with most of the job expansion occurring in Accommodation and Food Service (up 5,600).

Other Services

Employment in Other Services jumped 1,100 (0.9 percent) in November after having declined the previous two months. Employment as of November is 1.5 percent (1,800 jobs) below the pre-recession peak. Other Services employment is up 1,300 (1.1 percent) for the year.

Government

Government employment slipped for the second straight month, shrinking 3,200 (0.8 percent). Local government payrolls were down 3,500 (1.2 percent) from last month while Federal Government employment increased 200 (0.6 percent), and State Government climbed by 100 (0.1 percent). Government employment is down 0.3 percent — 1,200 jobs — for the year. The job loss has been split between Federal Government (500), State Government (600), and Local Government (100).


Minnesota Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment
(In Thousands)

November 2013

October 2013

September 2013

Total Nonagricultural                         

             2,786.5

                         2,787.3

                           2,776.4

Goods-Producing 

                 411.2

                            410.4

                              404.8

Mining and Logging

                      7.5

                                 7.5

                                   7.5

Construction                            

                   98.4

                               98.0

                                 96.4

Manufacturing                          

                 305.3

                            304.9

                              300.9

Service-Providing                      

             2,375.3

                         2,376.9

                           2,371.6

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

                 517.4

                            517.7

                              517.2

Information                            

                   56.4

                               55.1

                                 55.1

Financial Activities                   

                 180.1

                            178.9

                              179.0

Professional and Business Services     

                 341.5

                            343.1

                              344.2

Educational and Health                 

                 495.1

                            495.3

                              490.0

Leisure and Hospitality                

                 253.5

                            253.4

                              250.4

Other Services

                 117.1

                            116.0

                              116.6

Government                             

                 414.2

                            417.4

                              419.1

Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development, Current Employment Statistics, 2013


Graph: Minnesota Employment Growth



 *Over-the-year data are not seasonally adjusted because of small changes in seasonal adjustment factors from year to year. Also, there is no seasonality in over-the-year changes.