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Industrial Analysis

by Nick Dobbins
nicholas.dobbins@state.mn.us

August 2014

Monthly analysis is based on seasonally adjusted employment data.
Yearly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.*

Overview

Seasonally adjusted employment dropped in July, losing 4,200 jobs (0.1 percent) from June estimates. This drop comes on the heels of a similarly-sized gain of 4,900 in June. July's decline came entirely from service providers, as goods producers remained static. The drop was driven by the Educational and Health Services supersector, which lost 5,300 jobs (1.1 percent) with a decline of 4,800(6.9 percent) in Educational Services. Other job losers: Information (down 1,000 or 1.8 percent), Construction (down 700, 0.6 percent), and Financial Activities (down 200, 0.1 percent). The remaining supersectors were either growing or flat. On a yearly basis employment grew by 68,344 (2.5 percent) over July 2013. The only supersectors to lose jobs on the year were Information (down 362, 0.7 percent), Financial Activities (down 1,152, 0.6 percent), and Other Services (down 860, 0.7 percent). The largest numerical growth has come in Manufacturing, which is up 9,505 (3.1 percent).

Mining and Logging

Employment in Mining and Logging was flat in July, remaining at a seasonally adjusted 7,300 after June's estimate was revised downward from 7,400. Employment in the industry group remains strong annually, up 636 jobs or 8.8 percent over July 2013.

Construction

Employment in Construction was down in July after seasonal adjustment, declining by 700 (0.6 percent) from June estimates. For the year, employment in Construction remains quite strong, with the supersector holding on to 8,260 (7.3 percent) more jobs than in July 2013. Most of that growth has come from Specialty Trade Contractors and Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction, which are up 4,701 (6.6 percent) and 3,929 (21.4 percent) respectively.

Manufacturing

Employment in the Manufacturing supersector ticked up in July, adding 700 jobs (0.2 percent) from June as gains in Durable Goods (up 1,500, 0.7 percent) outpaced losses in Nondurable Goods (down 800, 0.7 percent) for the month. Manufacturing maintained its strong annual performance, with 9,505 (3.1 percent) more jobs than in 2013. Growth was split between Durable and Nondurable Goods, which were up 8,209 (4.2 percent) and 1,296 (1.1 percent), respectively.

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Employment in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities was up 1,600 jobs (0.3 percent) in July. Growth in Retail Trade (up 1,100 jobs or 0.4 percent) and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (up 600, 0.7 percent) overcame a small decline of 100 (0.1 percent) in Wholesale Trade. Employment also grew on an annual basis, with the supersector adding 5,658 jobs (1.1 percent). All three component sectors contributed to the growth, with Wholesale Trade up 2,726 (2.1 percent), Retail Trade up 2,178 (0.8 percent), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities up 754 (0.8 percent).

Information

Employment in the Information supersector was down in July, losing 1,000 jobs (1.8 percent). The decline follows four straight months of flat or positive job growth. Because of the July job losses, the supersector is now also experiencing negative job growth on an annual basis, down 362 (0.7 percent) from July 2013, one of only three supersectors to be losing employment over the year.

Financial Activities

Financial Activities employment was down slightly in July, losing 200 jobs (0.1 percent) over the previous month as a loss of 500 (0.4 percent) in Finance and Insurance overcame a gain of 300 (0.7 percent) in Real Estate and Rental and Leasing. Employment is also down for the year, off by 1,152 jobs (0.6 percent). As with the monthly changes, gains in Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (up 1,168, 2.9 percent) were not enough to balance losses in Finance and Insurance, which lost 2,320 jobs (1.6 percent), with the largest loss in that sector coming from Credit Intermediation and Related Activities, down 1,652 jobs or 3 percent.

Professional and Business Services

Employment in Professional and Business Services was unchanged in July, holding at 353,400 jobs. An increase of 1,400 jobs (1.0 percent) in Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services was balanced by losses of 1,000 (0.7 percent) in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services and 400 (0.5 percent) in Management of Companies and Enterprises. Annually, the supersector continues to grow, up 11,667 jobs (3.3 percent) since 2013. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services added 3,069 jobs (2.3 percent) with most of that coming from Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (up 1,151, 5.9 percent). Management of Companies and Enterprises was up 2,346 (3 percent), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services was up 6,252 (4.6 percent) with strong growth in Employment Services (up 3,287 or 5.4 percent) and Services to Buildings and Dwellings (up 3,104, 10 percent).

Educational and Health Services

Seasonally adjusted Educational and Health Services employment dropped sharply in July, shedding 5,300 jobs (1.1 percent) over June estimates. The drop is largely from a decline of 4,800 (6.9 percent) in private Educational Services, which followed an unexpected increase of 3,700 in June, suggesting that the regular winding down for summer break may have come later than usual this year. Employment in the supersector remains up annually, adding 9,023 jobs (1.9 percent) since 2013. Educational Services was up 1,131 (2 percent), while Health Care and Social Assistance was up 7,892 (1.9 percent), thanks in large part to a gain of 5,467 (4 percent) in Ambulatory Health Care Services.

Leisure and Hospitality

Leisure and Hospitality employment was up 600 (0.2 percent) in July, as an increase of 2,500 (1.2 percent) in Accommodation and Food Services overcame a loss of 1,900 (4.8 percent) in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation. Annually, the supersector's employment is up 4,456 (1.7 percent), as an increase of 896 (1.9 percent) in Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation combined with a gain of 3,560 (1.6 percent) in Accommodation and Food Services, all of which came from the jump of 4,510 (2.4 percent) in Food Services and Drinking Places which makes up the bulk of the supersector's employment.

Other Services

Employment in Other Services was up slightly in July, adding 200 jobs (0.2 percent) since June. Annually, the supersector's employment was down slightly, as it lost 860 jobs (0.7 percent) since 2013. The annual loss was caused by a decline of 1,047 (1.5 percent) in Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations, which easily swamped small gains in Repair and Maintenance and in Personal and Laundry Services.

Government

Government Employment was largely flat for July, down 100 jobs (0.0 percent) from June estimates. A gain of 400 (1.3 percent) in Federal Government was offset by losses of 300 (0.3 percent) and 200 (0.1 percent) in State and Local Government, respectively. Annually, the supersector added 21,513 jobs (5.7 percent), driven by a gain of 23,461 (9.4 percent) in Local Government, with most of that coming from Educational Services. Federal Government employment was up 343 (1.1 percent) while State Government Employment fell by 2,291 (2.4 percent).


Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment
(in thousands)
Industry Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14
Total Nonfarm 2,814.6 2,818.8 2,813.9
Goods-Producing excluding Agriculture 430.6 430.6 432.1
Mining and Logging 7.3 7.3 7.2
Construction 108.1 108.8 109.0
Manufacturing 315.2 314.5 315.9
Service-Providing 2,384.0 2,388.2 2,381.8
Trade, Transportation and Utilities 514.4 512.8 512.5
Information 53.6 54.6 54.0
Financial Activities 179.9 180.1 179.5
Professional and Business Services 353.4 353.4 354.1
Educational and Health 497.4 502.7 497.8
Leisure and Hospitality 249.4 248.8 249.6
Other Services (Private Only) 117.7 117.5 118.7
Government 418.2 418.3 415.6
Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development, Current Employment Statistics, 2012.


Bar graph-Minnesota Employment Growth

* Over-the-year data are not seasonally adjusted because of small changes in seasonal adjustment factors from year to year. Also, there is no seasonality in over-the-year changes.

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