Minnesota's total population is estimated to exceed 6 million by 2032, and grow to nearly 6.8 million by 2070.
In the coming two decades, the under 18 population will grow modestly, gaining about 32,000 between 2015 and 2035. Meanwhile, the state's 65 and older population will grow much more rapidly, adding more than half a million people (510,000+) over those same years. As a result of this growth, in 2035, the age 65+ group is expected to eclipse the under 18 population for the first time in our state's history.
The share of the total population that is age 18 to 64 will fall from 62% in 2015 to 57% by 2028.
The percent of Minnesota's population that is nonwhite and/or Latino is projected to grow from 14 percent in 2005 to 25 percent by 2035.
Age & Sex Projections
FOR MINNESOTA OVERALL (December 2016 re-release)
At the state level, data are available by five-year age groups and sex for each five-year interval from 2015 to 2070. These state-level projections conform to the county and regional projections below.
Note: Some users may wish to see the data series that does not include the impact of net migration, but only the anticipated population resulting from natural change (births and deaths). For these users, we have prepared a zero-migration series in CSV format. Users are cautioned that this is NOT our official projection for Minnesota.
FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGIONS (March 2017 release)
MN' s 13 Economic Development Regions (EDRs) comprise groups of counties. At the EDR level, data are available by total population for each five-year interval from 2015 to 2050. These projections conform to the Minnesota state-level projections.
FOR COUNTIES(March 2017 release)
At the county level, data are available by five-year age groups and sex for each five-year interval from 2015 to 2050. These county-level projections conform to the Minnesota state-level projections.
Note: Our office does not currently produce labor force projections for geographies other than Minnesota.
Race & Ethnicity Projections
FOR MINNESOTA, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGIONS, AND SELECT LARGE COUNTIES (January 2009 release)
County-level data are available for Anoka, Beltrami, Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Olmsted, Scott, St. Louis, and Washington Counties.
Note: Our office does not currently produce race and ethnicity projections for cities or any geographies other than those listed above.
What are these projections used for?
Our various projections are valuable tools for planning for Minnesota counties, cities and townships--as well as for service providers and others who may work with a particular population, such as older adults.
What inputs are used to create these population projections?
We examine historical and recent patterns of birth, death, and migration. Vital statistics data are obtained from the MN Department of Health. We also employ data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Decennial Census, Population Estimates, and American Community Survey. For detailed methods, please see the methodology documents on the respective tabs.
Are these projections different than those produced by the Metropolitan Council?
Yes. The State Demographic Center employs a different methodology than does the Met Council in its forecasting work. Additionally, our office produces projections for all 87 counties, not just the 7 in the Twin Cities metro area.
Are these projections different than those produced by the U.S. Census Bureau?
Yes. The State Demographic Center uses Census Bureau projections as an input in its projections, but prepares its own projections. The Census Bureau does not produce projections for Minnesota counties, only the state as a whole.
Whom should I contact for more information?
Questions about our population and other projections should be directed to our Projections Demographer Megan Dayton.